Union La Calera 1-2 Deportes Iquique – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union La Calera at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union La Calera vs Deportes Iquique fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Deportes Iquique travel to Nicholas chahuan Municipal to take on Union La Calera. The game is scheduled for Friday 7 November 2025, 23:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union La Calera stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Primera División matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Union La Calera, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Nicholas chahuan Municipal, Union La Calera have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Union La Calera are significantly better at Nicholas chahuan Municipal than their overall form suggests.
Deportes Iquique — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Deportes Iquique, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Deportes Iquique have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Union La Calera 0.70 PPG, Deportes Iquique 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Union La Calera, 1 for Deportes Iquique and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2025, ended 1–0 with Union La Calera winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Union La Calera in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Deportes Iquique in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union La Calera 41% versus Deportes Iquique 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union La Calera 38% | Deportes Iquique 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 1.84 xG and Deportes Iquique 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 0.981 / defence 0.977 | Deportes Iquique attack 0.900 / defence 1.283. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.099. Deportes Iquique bring a strong defensive rating of 1.283 — this is suppressing Union La Calera's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Union La Calera games / 56 Deportes Iquique games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union La Calera 58% | Draw 23% | Deportes Iquique 19%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Deportes Iquique 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Union La Calera (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Union La Calera as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union La Calera 40% | Deportes Iquique 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union La Calera vs Deportes Iquique | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Nicholas chahuan Municipal • Kick-off: Friday 7 Nov 2025, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union La Calera 58% | Draw 23% | Deportes Iquique 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 52% | xG Union La Calera 1.84 / Deportes Iquique 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Union La Calera attack 0.981 / def 0.977 | Deportes Iquique attack 0.900 / def 1.283 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Union La Calera (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Union La Calera xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Deportes Iquique xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union La Calera vs Deportes Iquique kick off?
Union La Calera vs Deportes Iquique kicked off at 23:00 on Friday 7 November 2025 at Nicholas chahuan Municipal.
What was the final score in Union La Calera vs Deportes Iquique?
Union La Calera 1 - 2 Deportes Iquique.
Where is Union La Calera vs Deportes Iquique being played?
The match is being played at Nicholas chahuan Municipal.
What competition is Union La Calera vs Deportes Iquique part of?
Union La Calera vs Deportes Iquique is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union La Calera vs Deportes Iquique?
Our statistical model gives Union La Calera a 58% chance of winning, Deportes Iquique a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Union La Calera the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs Deportes Iquique?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Union La Calera and Deportes Iquique will score (BTTS).
Will Union La Calera vs Deportes Iquique have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Deportes Iquique?
Record (3 meetings): Union La Calera 1W | Draws 1 | Deportes Iquique 1W.
What form are Union La Calera and Deportes Iquique in?
Union La Calera (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Deportes Iquique (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Union La Calera's attack at 0.98x the league average against Deportes Iquique's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Deportes Iquique's attack versus Union La Calera's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union La Calera Win
58%
1.73
23%
4.43
19%
5.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Union La Calera xG
Total xG
2.81
0.97
Deportes Iquique xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
5.14
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
16%
6.32
Win to Nil
22%
4.53
3%
32.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 10.7 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs Deportes Iquique?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Union La Calera and Deportes Iquique expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Union La Calera and 0.97 for Deportes Iquique, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Union La Calera vs Deportes Iquique?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Union La Calera's recent record stands at 17W 12D 27L from 56 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Union La Calera is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Deportes Iquique, meanwhile, have gone 17W 12D 27L across 56 games — 1.12 PPG, with W-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Deportes Iquique is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union La Calera on 1.12 PPG, Deportes Iquique on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Union La Calera have managed 11W 5D 12L from 28 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Deportes Iquique's away record stands at 4W 8D 16L across 28 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Deportes Iquique's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union La Calera come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Union La Calera are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Deportes Iquique are on 1.43 scored and 1.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deportes Iquique in 66%.
Last 56 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union La Calera
Blended
Deportes Iquique
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union La Calera and Deportes Iquique in coming into this match?
Union La Calera have gone 17W 12D 27L in their last 56 games (1.12 PPG), while Deportes Iquique have gone 17W 12D 27L in their last 56 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union La Calera at home or Deportes Iquique away?
Union La Calera's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union La Calera at home: 1.36 PPG; Deportes Iquique away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union La Calera and Deportes Iquique runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 7 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Union La Calera's record when hosting Deportes Iquique specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Union La Calera
1
Draws
2
Deportes Iquique
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Deportes Iquique?
From 4 meetings on record, Union La Calera have won 1, Deportes Iquique have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union La Calera and Deportes Iquique last play each other?
They last met on 7 November 2025, when Union La Calera 1-2 Deportes Iquique.
Who has won more matches between Union La Calera and Deportes Iquique?
Deportes Iquique have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Deportes Iquique are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union La Calera 50%, Deportes Iquique 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Union La Calera and 71% for Deportes Iquique. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union La Calera have failed to score in 29% of games; Deportes Iquique in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union La Calera home games / Deportes Iquique away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union La Calera play Deportes Iquique?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Union La Calera's games and 68% of Deportes Iquique's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union La Calera vs Deportes Iquique usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Union La Calera's matches and 71% of Deportes Iquique's.
Do Union La Calera and Deportes Iquique tend to score early?
Union La Calera have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Deportes Iquique in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Deportes Iquique defy the odds to beat Union La Calera 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deportes Iquique beat Union La Calera 1-2 at Nicholas chahuan Municipal, Regular Season - 27, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.84 xG and Deportes Iquique 0.97 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Union La Calera fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Deportes Iquique outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 0.98 / defence 0.98 against Deportes Iquique attack 0.90 / defence 1.28, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 58% | Draw 23% | Deportes Iquique 19%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Deportes Iquique win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 38%, Deportes Iquique 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union La Calera's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Deportes Iquique's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union La Calera 1.12 PPG, Deportes Iquique 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Deportes Iquique win broke the near-deadlock. Deportes Iquique (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.