Union La Calera 2-1 Colo Colo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Colo Colo at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union La Calera vs Colo Colo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Union La Calera host Colo Colo at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar in Primera División, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 August 2022 at 22:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Union La Calera have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Union La Calera, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union La Calera at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar this season: 2W 7D 1L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Colo Colo stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Primera División matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Colo Colo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Colo Colo's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Colo Colo — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Union La Calera, 1 for Colo Colo and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2022, ended 0–4 with Colo Colo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Union La Calera trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Colo Colo trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union La Calera 54% versus Colo Colo 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union La Calera 46% | Colo Colo 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 1.12 xG and Colo Colo 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 0.918 / defence 1.094 | Colo Colo attack 1.271 / defence 0.826. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.139. Colo Colo have an above-average attack strength of 1.271 — the away xG of 1.58 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 Union La Calera games / 54 Colo Colo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union La Calera 27% | Draw 25% | Colo Colo 48%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 3.70 | Draw 4.00 | Colo Colo 2.08. Colo Colo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Colo Colo at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Colo Colo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Union La Calera 50% | Colo Colo 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union La Calera vs Colo Colo | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union La Calera 27% | Draw 25% | Colo Colo 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Union La Calera 1.12 / Colo Colo 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Union La Calera attack 0.918 / def 1.094 | Colo Colo attack 1.271 / def 0.826 | league avg home 1.479 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Colo Colo (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Union La Calera xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Colo Colo xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union La Calera vs Colo Colo kick off?
Union La Calera vs Colo Colo kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What was the final score in Union La Calera vs Colo Colo?
Union La Calera 2 - 1 Colo Colo.
Where is Union La Calera vs Colo Colo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What competition is Union La Calera vs Colo Colo part of?
Union La Calera vs Colo Colo is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union La Calera vs Colo Colo?
Our statistical model gives Union La Calera a 27% chance of winning, Colo Colo a 48% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Colo Colo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs Colo Colo?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Union La Calera and Colo Colo will score (BTTS).
Will Union La Calera vs Colo Colo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Colo Colo?
Record (2 meetings): Union La Calera 0W | Draws 1 | Colo Colo 1W.
What form are Union La Calera and Colo Colo in?
Union La Calera (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Colo Colo (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Union La Calera's attack rating (0.92) and Colo Colo's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Colo Colo's attack versus Union La Calera's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colo Colo Win
27%
3.71
25%
4.00
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Union La Calera xG
Total xG
2.71
1.58
Colo Colo xG
3.71
27%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
20%
4.88
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
6%
18.12
16%
6.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 10.6 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs Colo Colo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Union La Calera and Colo Colo expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Union La Calera and 1.58 for Colo Colo, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Union La Calera vs Colo Colo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, Union La Calera have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 19W 17D 18L record — L-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Union La Calera is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Colo Colo's form line: 33W 11D 10L from 54 games, 2.04 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Colo Colo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Colo Colo are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Union La Calera.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Union La Calera have posted 1.33 PPG from 27 outings (9W 9D 9L).
On the road, Colo Colo have gone 15W 7D 5L from 27 away games — 1.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Colo Colo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Union La Calera are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Colo Colo are on 1.67 scored and 0.72 conceded.
Defensively: Colo Colo in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union La Calera
Blended
Colo Colo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union La Calera and Colo Colo in coming into this match?
Union La Calera have gone 19W 17D 18L in their last 54 games (1.37 PPG), while Colo Colo have gone 33W 11D 10L in their last 54 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union La Calera at home or Colo Colo away?
Colo Colo's away record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union La Calera at home: 1.33 PPG; Colo Colo away: 1.93 PPG.
Have Union La Calera or Colo Colo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union La Calera have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Colo Colo in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union La Calera and Colo Colo runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Colo Colo go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Mar 2022, when Colo Colo won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union La Calera's record when hosting Colo Colo specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Union La Calera
2
Draws
7
Colo Colo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Colo Colo?
From 10 meetings on record, Union La Calera have won 1, Colo Colo have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Union La Calera and Colo Colo last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Colo Colo 1-0 Union La Calera.
Who has won more matches between Union La Calera and Colo Colo?
Colo Colo have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Colo Colo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union La Calera 52%, Colo Colo 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Union La Calera) and 48% (Colo Colo).
On the defensive side: Union La Calera keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union La Calera home games / Colo Colo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union La Calera play Colo Colo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Union La Calera's games and 59% of Colo Colo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union La Calera vs Colo Colo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Union La Calera's recent games and 48% of Colo Colo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union La Calera and Colo Colo tend to score early?
Union La Calera have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Colo Colo in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Union La Calera defy the odds to beat Colo Colo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union La Calera beat Colo Colo 2-1 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Regular Season - 23, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.12 xG and Colo Colo 1.58 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Union La Calera beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 0.92 / defence 1.09 against Colo Colo attack 1.27 / defence 0.83, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 27% | Draw 25% | Colo Colo 48%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Union La Calera win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 46%, Colo Colo 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union La Calera's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Colo Colo's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.37. Form was overturned, with Union La Calera winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Union La Calera (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm. Colo Colo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.