O'Higgins 1-0 Antofagasta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates O'Higgins at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this O'Higgins vs Antofagasta fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 24 as O'Higgins welcome Antofagasta to Estadio El Teniente. Kick-off is set for Friday 9 September 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, O'Higgins have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for O'Higgins, so this record blends games from this season and last.
O'Higgins's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Estadio El Teniente this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Antofagasta — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Antofagasta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Antofagasta have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (O'Higgins) versus 1.20 (Antofagasta). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for O'Higgins, 2 for Antofagasta and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with Antofagasta winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
O'Higgins in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Antofagasta in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — O'Higgins 46% versus Antofagasta 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (O'Higgins 42% | Antofagasta 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects O'Higgins 1.10 xG and Antofagasta 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: O'Higgins attack 0.861 / defence 0.874 | Antofagasta attack 0.817 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.124. Data: 55 O'Higgins games / 55 Antofagasta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: O'Higgins 42% | Draw 31% | Antofagasta 26%. Fair-value odds: O'Higgins 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Antofagasta 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is O'Higgins at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on O'Higgins offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.90 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates are neutral: O'Higgins 70% | Antofagasta 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: O'Higgins vs Antofagasta | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estadio El Teniente • Kick-off: Friday 9 Sep 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: O'Higgins 42% | Draw 31% | Antofagasta 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG O'Higgins 1.10 / Antofagasta 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: O'Higgins attack 0.861 / def 0.874 | Antofagasta attack 0.817 / def 0.851 | league avg home 1.504 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: O'Higgins (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
O'Higgins xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Antofagasta xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does O'Higgins vs Antofagasta kick off?
O'Higgins vs Antofagasta kicked off at 23:00 on Friday 9 September 2022 at Estadio El Teniente.
What was the final score in O'Higgins vs Antofagasta?
O'Higgins 1 - 0 Antofagasta.
Where is O'Higgins vs Antofagasta being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Teniente.
What competition is O'Higgins vs Antofagasta part of?
O'Higgins vs Antofagasta is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win O'Higgins vs Antofagasta?
Our statistical model gives O'Higgins a 42% chance of winning, Antofagasta a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making O'Higgins the favourite.
Will both teams score in O'Higgins vs Antofagasta?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both O'Higgins and Antofagasta will score (BTTS).
Will O'Higgins vs Antofagasta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between O'Higgins and Antofagasta?
Record (3 meetings): O'Higgins 0W | Draws 1 | Antofagasta 2W.
What form are O'Higgins and Antofagasta in?
O'Higgins (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Antofagasta (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
O'Higgins's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Antofagasta's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, Antofagasta's attack versus O'Higgins's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
O'Higgins Win
42%
2.36
31%
3.20
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
O'Higgins xG
Total xG
1.90
0.80
Antofagasta xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
19%
5.27
9%
11.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 11.9 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.0 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for O'Higgins vs Antofagasta?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are O'Higgins and Antofagasta expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for O'Higgins and 0.80 for Antofagasta, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for O'Higgins vs Antofagasta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
O'Higgins's recent record stands at 17W 19D 19L from 55 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for O'Higgins is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antofagasta, meanwhile, have gone 17W 18D 20L across 55 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Antofagasta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: O'Higgins on 1.27 PPG, Antofagasta on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, O'Higgins have managed 10W 11D 6L from 27 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antofagasta's away record stands at 4W 11D 12L across 27 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antofagasta's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, O'Higgins come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
O'Higgins are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Antofagasta are on 1.00 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: O'Higgins have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
O'Higgins
Blended
Antofagasta
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are O'Higgins and Antofagasta in coming into this match?
O'Higgins have gone 17W 19D 19L in their last 55 games (1.27 PPG), while Antofagasta have gone 17W 18D 20L in their last 55 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — O'Higgins at home or Antofagasta away?
O'Higgins's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — O'Higgins at home: 1.52 PPG; Antofagasta away: 0.85 PPG.
Have O'Higgins or Antofagasta been keeping clean sheets recently?
O'Higgins have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Antofagasta in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
O'Higgins's record when hosting Antofagasta specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
O'Higgins
1
Draws
2
Antofagasta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between O'Higgins and Antofagasta?
From 4 meetings on record, O'Higgins have won 1, Antofagasta have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did O'Higgins and Antofagasta last play each other?
They last met on 9 September 2022, when O'Higgins 1-0 Antofagasta.
Who has won more matches between O'Higgins and Antofagasta?
Antofagasta have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
O'Higgins are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Antofagasta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — O'Higgins 56%, Antofagasta 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (O'Higgins) and 26% (Antofagasta).
On the defensive side: O'Higgins keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Antofagasta in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = O'Higgins home games / Antofagasta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when O'Higgins play Antofagasta?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of O'Higgins's recent matches and 44% of Antofagasta's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is O'Higgins vs Antofagasta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of O'Higgins's recent games and 26% of Antofagasta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do O'Higgins and Antofagasta tend to score early?
O'Higgins have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Antofagasta in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as O'Higgins edge out Antofagasta 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
O'Higgins beat Antofagasta 1-0 at Estadio El Teniente, Regular Season - 24, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting O'Higgins 1.10 xG and Antofagasta 0.80 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Antofagasta landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of O'Higgins attack 0.86 / defence 0.87 against Antofagasta attack 0.82 / defence 0.85, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it O'Higgins 42% | Draw 31% | Antofagasta 26%, with O'Higgins to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (O'Higgins 42%, Antofagasta 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
O'Higgins's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Antofagasta's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — O'Higgins 1.27 PPG, Antofagasta 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the O'Higgins win broke the near-deadlock. O'Higgins (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.