Deportes Iquique 1-1 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deportes Iquique vs Everton de Vina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Tierra de Campeones plays host to Deportes Iquique versus Everton de Vina in Primera División, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 25 February 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Everton de Vina (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Everton de Vina have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Iquique 1.09 xG and Everton de Vina 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Iquique attack 0.860 / defence 1.150 | Everton de Vina attack 1.026 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.362. Data: 1 Deportes Iquique games / 30 Everton de Vina games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Deportes Iquique 26% | Draw 25% | Everton de Vina 49%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Iquique 3.85 | Draw 4.00 | Everton de Vina 2.04. Everton de Vina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton de Vina are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Iquique vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estadio Tierra de Campeones • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Iquique 26% | Draw 25% | Everton de Vina 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Deportes Iquique 1.09 / Everton de Vina 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Iquique attack 0.860 / def 1.150 | Everton de Vina attack 1.026 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Deportes Iquique xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Everton de Vina xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deportes Iquique vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Deportes Iquique vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 25 February 2024 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones.
What was the final score in Deportes Iquique vs Everton de Vina?
Deportes Iquique 1 - 1 Everton de Vina.
Where is Deportes Iquique vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Tierra de Campeones.
What competition is Deportes Iquique vs Everton de Vina part of?
Deportes Iquique vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Iquique vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Iquique a 26% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 49% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Iquique vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Deportes Iquique and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Deportes Iquique vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Iquique and Everton de Vina?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Deportes Iquique and Everton de Vina in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Everton de Vina away split: 2.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Deportes Iquique's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Everton de Vina's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. Flip it around — Everton de Vina's attack (1.03x) against Deportes Iquique's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
The sample (1/30 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
26%
3.87
25%
4.02
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Deportes Iquique xG
Total xG
2.70
1.61
Everton de Vina xG
3.87
26%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
20%
4.98
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
5%
19.26
17%
6.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 10.8 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Iquique vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Deportes Iquique and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Deportes Iquique and 1.61 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Iquique vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Iquique
Pre-Season
Everton de Vina
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Deportes Iquique have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Everton de Vina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Deportes Iquique
2
Draws
1
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Iquique and Everton de Vina?
From 4 meetings on record, Deportes Iquique have won 1, Everton de Vina have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Iquique and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Everton de Vina 0-1 Deportes Iquique.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Iquique home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Deportes Iquique and Everton de Vina share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Tierra de Campeones, Regular Season - 2, as Deportes Iquique and Everton de Vina drew 1-1 in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Iquique 1.09 xG and Everton de Vina 1.61 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Iquique attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Everton de Vina attack 1.03 / defence 0.91, drawn from 1/30 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Iquique 26% | Draw 25% | Everton de Vina 49%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.