Deportes Iquique 4-2 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coquimbo Unido at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deportes Iquique vs Coquimbo Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Coquimbo Unido travel to Estadio Tierra de Campeones to take on Deportes Iquique. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 March 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Looking at all fixtures this season, Coquimbo Unido stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Coquimbo Unido's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Iquique 0.97 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Iquique attack 0.834 / defence 1.082 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.800 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.323 / away 1.345. Data: 3 Deportes Iquique games / 33 Coquimbo Unido games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Deportes Iquique 30% | Draw 29% | Coquimbo Unido 40%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Iquique 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Coquimbo Unido 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Coquimbo Unido are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Iquique vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estadio Tierra de Campeones • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Iquique 30% | Draw 29% | Coquimbo Unido 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Deportes Iquique 0.97 / Coquimbo Unido 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Iquique attack 0.834 / def 1.082 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.800 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.323 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Deportes Iquique xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Coquimbo Unido xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deportes Iquique vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Deportes Iquique vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones.
What was the final score in Deportes Iquique vs Coquimbo Unido?
Deportes Iquique 4 - 2 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Deportes Iquique vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Tierra de Campeones.
What competition is Deportes Iquique vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Deportes Iquique vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Iquique vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Iquique a 30% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Iquique vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Deportes Iquique and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Deportes Iquique vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Iquique and Coquimbo Unido?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Deportes Iquique and Coquimbo Unido in?
Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Coquimbo Unido away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | CS 0.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Deportes Iquique's attack at 0.83x the league average against Coquimbo Unido's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Coquimbo Unido's attack versus Deportes Iquique's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
30%
3.30
29%
3.39
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Deportes Iquique xG
Total xG
2.14
1.17
Coquimbo Unido xG
3.30
30%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
9%
10.57
15%
6.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 13.8 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Iquique vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Deportes Iquique and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Deportes Iquique and 1.17 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Iquique vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Iquique
Pre-Season
Coquimbo Unido
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 19 July 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Coquimbo Unido have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Feb 2025, when Coquimbo Unido won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Deportes Iquique's record when hosting Coquimbo Unido specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Deportes Iquique
0
Draws
2
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Iquique and Coquimbo Unido?
From 4 meetings on record, Deportes Iquique have won 2, Coquimbo Unido have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Iquique and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 19 July 2025, when Coquimbo Unido 4-1 Deportes Iquique.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Iquique home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Deportes Iquique cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Coquimbo Unido.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deportes Iquique beat Coquimbo Unido 4-2 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones, Regular Season - 4, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Iquique 0.97 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.17 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Deportes Iquique beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Coquimbo Unido outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Iquique attack 0.83 / defence 1.08 against Coquimbo Unido attack 0.80 / defence 0.88, drawn from 3/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Iquique 30% | Draw 29% | Coquimbo Unido 40%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Deportes Iquique win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.