Deportes Iquique 0-3 Colo Colo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Colo Colo at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Deportes Iquique face Colo Colo.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Deportes Iquique and Colo Colo meet at Estadio Tierra de Campeones in Primera División (matchday 14). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 May 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Current Form
Colo Colo (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Colo Colo's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 5D 1L (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Iquique 1.40 xG and Colo Colo 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Iquique attack 1.137 / defence 1.071 | Colo Colo attack 1.020 / defence 0.817. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.404. Data: built from Deportes Iquique's last 13 games and Colo Colo's last 43.
Result probabilities: Deportes Iquique 35% | Draw 25% | Colo Colo 41%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Iquique 2.89 | Draw 4.07 | Colo Colo 2.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Colo Colo at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Colo Colo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Iquique vs Colo Colo | Competition: Primera División, matchday 14 | Venue: Estadio Tierra de Campeones • Kick-off: Saturday 25 May 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Iquique 35% | Draw 25% | Colo Colo 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Deportes Iquique 1.40 / Colo Colo 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Iquique attack 1.137 / def 1.071 | Colo Colo attack 1.020 / def 0.817 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Colo Colo (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Deportes Iquique xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Colo Colo xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Deportes Iquique vs Colo Colo FAQs
What time does Deportes Iquique vs Colo Colo kick off?
Deportes Iquique vs Colo Colo kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Saturday 25 May 2024 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones.
What was the final score in Deportes Iquique vs Colo Colo?
Deportes Iquique 0 - 3 Colo Colo.
Where is Deportes Iquique vs Colo Colo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Tierra de Campeones.
What competition is Deportes Iquique vs Colo Colo part of?
Deportes Iquique vs Colo Colo is a Primera División fixture (matchday 14) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Iquique vs Colo Colo?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Iquique a 35% chance of winning, Colo Colo a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Colo Colo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Iquique vs Colo Colo?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Deportes Iquique and Colo Colo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Deportes Iquique vs Colo Colo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Deportes Iquique's attack at 1.14x the league average against Colo Colo's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Colo Colo's attack (1.02x) against Deportes Iquique's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from Deportes Iquique's last 13 games and Colo Colo's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Colo Colo Win
35%
2.89
25%
4.07
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Deportes Iquique xG
Total xG
2.93
1.53
Colo Colo xG
2.89
35%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
22%
4.63
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
7%
13.36
10%
9.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.2 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.4 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Deportes Iquique vs Colo Colo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Iquique vs Colo Colo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Deportes Iquique and Colo Colo expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Deportes Iquique and 1.53 for Colo Colo, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Iquique vs Colo Colo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Iquique
Pre-Season
Colo Colo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Deportes Iquique (Home) vs Colo Colo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Deportes Iquique
Pre-Season
Colo Colo
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent in our data was on 26 September 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Colo Colo won Colo Colo 4-0 Deportes Iquique on 26 Sep 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Deportes Iquique have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Colo Colo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Deportes Iquique
1
Draws
3
Colo Colo
Recent Meetings
❓ Deportes Iquique vs Colo Colo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Iquique and Colo Colo?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Deportes Iquique have won 0, Colo Colo have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Deportes Iquique and Colo Colo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 September 2025: Colo Colo 4-0 Deportes Iquique.
Who has won more matches between Deportes Iquique and Colo Colo?
Colo Colo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Iquique home games / Colo Colo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Colo Colo run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Deportes Iquique.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colo Colo beat Deportes Iquique 0-3 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones, Regular Season - 14, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Iquique 1.40 xG and Colo Colo 1.53 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Deportes Iquique fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Colo Colo outscored their 1.53 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Iquique attack 1.14 / defence 1.07 against Colo Colo attack 1.02 / defence 0.82, drawn from 13/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Iquique 35% | Draw 25% | Colo Colo 41%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.