Coquimbo Unido 1-2 Huachipato – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coquimbo Unido at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coquimbo Unido vs Huachipato fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso plays host to Coquimbo Unido versus Huachipato in Primera División, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Monday 9 May 2022 at 01:00 UTC.
Current Form
Huachipato (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Huachipato have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.34 xG and Huachipato 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.087 / defence 1.350 | Huachipato attack 0.786 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.001. Data: 11 Coquimbo Unido games / 43 Huachipato games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 43% | Draw 28% | Huachipato 29%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Huachipato 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs Huachipato | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Monday 9 May 2022, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 43% | Draw 28% | Huachipato 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.34 / Huachipato 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.087 / def 1.350 | Huachipato attack 0.786 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.336 / away 1.001 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Huachipato xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs Huachipato kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs Huachipato kicked off at 01:00 on Monday 9 May 2022 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs Huachipato?
Coquimbo Unido 1 - 2 Huachipato.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs Huachipato being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs Huachipato part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs Huachipato is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs Huachipato?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 43% chance of winning, Huachipato a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Huachipato?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and Huachipato will score (BTTS).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs Huachipato have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Huachipato?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Huachipato in?
Huachipato (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Huachipato away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Coquimbo Unido's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Huachipato's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Huachipato's attack (0.79x) against Coquimbo Unido's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 11/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
43%
2.33
28%
3.61
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
2.40
1.06
Huachipato xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
15%
6.75
8%
12.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.9 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs Huachipato?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and Huachipato expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 1.06 for Huachipato, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs Huachipato?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Pre-Season
Huachipato
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Coquimbo Unido go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Coquimbo Unido have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Huachipato — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Coquimbo Unido
2
Draws
3
Huachipato
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Huachipato?
From 9 meetings on record, Coquimbo Unido have won 4, Huachipato have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and Huachipato last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Huachipato 1-3 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Coquimbo Unido and Huachipato?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / Huachipato away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Huachipato defy the odds to beat Coquimbo Unido 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Huachipato beat Coquimbo Unido 1-2 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 12, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.34 xG and Huachipato 1.06 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Huachipato outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 1.09 / defence 1.35 against Huachipato attack 0.79 / defence 0.92, drawn from 11/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 43% | Draw 28% | Huachipato 29%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Huachipato win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.