Cobresal 2-0 Union Espanola – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cobresal at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cobresal vs Union Espanola fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cobresal and Union Espanola meet at Estadio El Cobre in Primera División, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 August 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Cobresal (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Cobresal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio El Cobre, Cobresal have gone 4W 1D 2L this season (7 games, 1.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Union Espanola's overall Primera División record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Union Espanola, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Union Espanola have gone 2W 1D 4L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Cobresal against 1.70 for Union Espanola. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Cobresal goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Union Espanola goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cobresal 53% and Union Espanola 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cobresal 47% | Union Espanola 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 1.54 xG and Union Espanola 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 1.052 / defence 1.007 | Union Espanola attack 0.900 / defence 1.360. League average goals — home 1.077 / away 1.177. Union Espanola bring a strong defensive rating of 1.360 — this is suppressing Cobresal's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Cobresal games / 15 Union Espanola games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cobresal 46% | Draw 29% | Union Espanola 24%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Union Espanola 4.17. Cobresal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cobresal as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cobresal if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cobresal 57% | Union Espanola 57% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobresal vs Union Espanola | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estadio El Cobre • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Aug 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobresal 46% | Draw 29% | Union Espanola 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Cobresal 1.54 / Union Espanola 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Cobresal attack 1.052 / def 1.007 | Union Espanola attack 0.900 / def 1.360 | league avg home 1.077 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Cobresal (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Cobresal xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Union Espanola xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobresal vs Union Espanola kick off?
Cobresal vs Union Espanola kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 22 August 2021 at Estadio El Cobre.
What was the final score in Cobresal vs Union Espanola?
Cobresal 2 - 0 Union Espanola.
Where is Cobresal vs Union Espanola being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Cobre.
What competition is Cobresal vs Union Espanola part of?
Cobresal vs Union Espanola is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobresal vs Union Espanola?
Our statistical model gives Cobresal a 46% chance of winning, Union Espanola a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cobresal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs Union Espanola?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cobresal and Union Espanola will score (BTTS).
Will Cobresal vs Union Espanola have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Union Espanola?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cobresal and Union Espanola in?
Cobresal (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Union Espanola (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cobresal's attack rating (1.05) and Union Espanola's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union Espanola's attack (0.90x) against Cobresal's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cobresal Win
46%
2.16
29%
3.43
24%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Cobresal xG
Total xG
2.61
1.07
Union Espanola xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
4.08
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
16%
6.26
5%
19.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.1 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobresal vs Union Espanola?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Cobresal and Union Espanola expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Cobresal and 1.07 for Union Espanola, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobresal vs Union Espanola?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 15 outings, Cobresal have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 5W 4D 6L record — D-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Cobresal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union Espanola's form line: 6W 3D 6L from 15 games, 1.40 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Union Espanola is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Cobresal against 1.40 for Union Espanola. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cobresal have posted 1.86 PPG from 7 outings (4W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Cobresal are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Union Espanola have gone 2W 1D 4L from 7 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cobresal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cobresal are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Union Espanola are on 1.53 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Espanola in 67%.
Last 15 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobresal
Blended
Union Espanola
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cobresal and Union Espanola in coming into this match?
Cobresal have gone 5W 4D 6L in their last 15 games (1.27 PPG), while Union Espanola have gone 6W 3D 6L in their last 15 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cobresal at home or Union Espanola away?
Cobresal's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cobresal at home: 1.86 PPG; Union Espanola away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Cobresal or Union Espanola been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cobresal have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Union Espanola in 7%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Cobresal have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cobresal have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union Espanola — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Cobresal
3
Draws
2
Union Espanola
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Union Espanola?
From 10 meetings on record, Cobresal have won 5, Union Espanola have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cobresal and Union Espanola last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Cobresal 1-0 Union Espanola.
Who has won more matches between Cobresal and Union Espanola?
Cobresal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Union Espanola see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cobresal 57%, Union Espanola 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Cobresal) and 57% (Union Espanola).
On the defensive side: Union Espanola in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobresal home games / Union Espanola away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cobresal play Union Espanola?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Cobresal's games and 57% of Union Espanola's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cobresal vs Union Espanola usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Cobresal's recent games and 57% of Union Espanola's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cobresal and Union Espanola tend to score early?
Cobresal have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Union Espanola in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cobresal cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Union Espanola.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cobresal beat Union Espanola 2-0 at Estadio El Cobre, Regular Season - 17, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.54 xG and Union Espanola 1.07 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Union Espanola landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 1.05 / defence 1.01 against Union Espanola attack 0.90 / defence 1.36, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cobresal 46% | Draw 29% | Union Espanola 24%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 47%, Union Espanola 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cobresal's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Union Espanola's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cobresal 1.27 PPG, Union Espanola 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cobresal win broke the near-deadlock. Cobresal (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Union Espanola (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.