Cobresal 1-3 U. Catolica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cobresal at 52%, yet in-form U. Catolica provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cobresal vs U. Catolica fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cobresal host U. Catolica at Estadio El Cobre in Primera División, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cobresal stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Cobresal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cobresal have posted 6W 2D 2L at Estadio El Cobre — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Primera División games this season, U. Catolica have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for U. Catolica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
U. Catolica's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. U. Catolica are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Cobresal in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
U. Catolica in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cobresal 56% versus U. Catolica 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cobresal 48% | U. Catolica 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 1.82 xG and U. Catolica 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 1.206 / defence 0.982 | U. Catolica attack 0.984 / defence 1.429. League average goals — home 1.055 / away 1.216. U. Catolica bring a strong defensive rating of 1.429 — this is suppressing Cobresal's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Cobresal games / 23 U. Catolica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cobresal 52% | Draw 24% | U. Catolica 24%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | U. Catolica 4.17. Cobresal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cobresal are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form U. Catolica (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cobresal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Cobresal 50% | U. Catolica 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobresal vs U. Catolica | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estadio El Cobre • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobresal 52% | Draw 24% | U. Catolica 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 58% | xG Cobresal 1.82 / U. Catolica 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Cobresal attack 1.206 / def 0.982 | U. Catolica attack 0.984 / def 1.429 | league avg home 1.055 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Cobresal (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Cobresal xG
Expected Goals
1.18
U. Catolica xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobresal vs U. Catolica kick off?
Cobresal vs U. Catolica kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Estadio El Cobre.
What was the final score in Cobresal vs U. Catolica?
Cobresal 1 - 3 U. Catolica.
Where is Cobresal vs U. Catolica being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Cobre.
What competition is Cobresal vs U. Catolica part of?
Cobresal vs U. Catolica is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobresal vs U. Catolica?
Our statistical model gives Cobresal a 52% chance of winning, U. Catolica a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Cobresal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs U. Catolica?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Cobresal and U. Catolica will score (BTTS).
Will Cobresal vs U. Catolica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and U. Catolica?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cobresal and U. Catolica in?
Cobresal (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. U. Catolica (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cobresal's attack at 1.21x the league average against U. Catolica's defence at 1.43x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, U. Catolica's attack versus Cobresal's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cobresal Win
52%
1.92
24%
4.21
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Cobresal xG
Total xG
3.00
1.18
U. Catolica xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
16%
6.17
Win to Nil
16%
6.23
4%
25.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 10.7 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobresal vs U. Catolica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Cobresal and U. Catolica expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Cobresal and 1.18 for U. Catolica, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobresal vs U. Catolica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 23 outings, Cobresal have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 9W 4D 10L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cobresal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
U. Catolica's form line: 14W 2D 7L from 23 games, 1.91 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for U. Catolica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, U. Catolica are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cobresal.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cobresal have posted 2.09 PPG from 11 outings (7W 2D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — Cobresal are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, U. Catolica have gone 4W 0D 7L from 11 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.91 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of U. Catolica's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cobresal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cobresal are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; U. Catolica are on 1.87 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobresal
Blended
U. Catolica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cobresal and U. Catolica in coming into this match?
Cobresal have gone 9W 4D 10L in their last 23 games (1.35 PPG), while U. Catolica have gone 14W 2D 7L in their last 23 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cobresal at home or U. Catolica away?
Cobresal's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cobresal at home: 2.09 PPG; U. Catolica away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Cobresal or U. Catolica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cobresal have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, U. Catolica in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Cobresal's record when hosting U. Catolica specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Cobresal
3
Draws
4
U. Catolica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and U. Catolica?
From 10 meetings on record, Cobresal have won 3, U. Catolica have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cobresal and U. Catolica last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Cobresal 3-2 U. Catolica.
Who has won more matches between Cobresal and U. Catolica?
U. Catolica have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
U. Catolica see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cobresal 54%, U. Catolica 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Cobresal) and 54% (U. Catolica).
On the defensive side: Cobresal keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; U. Catolica in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobresal home games / U. Catolica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cobresal play U. Catolica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Cobresal's recent matches and 46% of U. Catolica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cobresal vs U. Catolica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Cobresal's recent games and 54% of U. Catolica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cobresal and U. Catolica tend to score early?
Cobresal have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, U. Catolica in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
U. Catolica cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Cobresal.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
U. Catolica beat Cobresal 1-3 at Estadio El Cobre, Regular Season - 26, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.82 xG and U. Catolica 1.18 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Cobresal fell 0.8 short of their projected output. U. Catolica outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 1.21 / defence 0.98 against U. Catolica attack 0.98 / defence 1.43, drawn from 24/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cobresal 52% | Draw 24% | U. Catolica 24%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a U. Catolica win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 48%, U. Catolica 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cobresal's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
U. Catolica's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, U. Catolica arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.35. That form edge translated into the three points. Cobresal (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. U. Catolica (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.