York United 2-1 Valour – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates York United at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this York United vs Valour encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Valour make the trip to York Lions Stadium to face York United in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 September 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
York United have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at York Lions Stadium, York United have gone 3W 4D 1L this season (8 games, 1.62 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at York Lions Stadium.
Valour's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Valour, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valour away from home this season: 2W 1D 6L from 9 away games — 0.78 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in York United's favour (1.70 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
York United half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Valour half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — York United 50% versus Valour 28%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 44% | Valour 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 1.05 xG and Valour 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 0.826 / defence 0.919 | Valour attack 0.781 / defence 1.249. League average goals — home 1.019 / away 1.034. Valour bring a strong defensive rating of 1.249 — this is suppressing York United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 York United games / 18 Valour games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: York United 42% | Draw 32% | Valour 25%. Fair-value odds: York United 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Valour 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Valour's lower xG of 0.74 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates York United as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on York United if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.79 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: York United 38% | Valour 44% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs Valour | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: York Lions Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 42% | Draw 32% | Valour 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 34% | xG York United 1.05 / Valour 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 0.826 / def 0.919 | Valour attack 0.781 / def 1.249 | league avg home 1.019 / away 1.034 • Poisson stance: York United (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
York United xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Valour xG
34%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does York United vs Valour kick off?
York United vs Valour kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at York Lions Stadium.
What was the final score in York United vs Valour?
York United 2 - 1 Valour.
Where is York United vs Valour being played?
The match is being played at York Lions Stadium.
What competition is York United vs Valour part of?
York United vs Valour is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs Valour?
Our statistical model gives York United a 42% chance of winning, Valour a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making York United the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs Valour?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both York United and Valour will score (BTTS).
Will York United vs Valour have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Valour?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are York United and Valour in?
York United (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Valour (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from York United's attack rating (0.83) and Valour's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Valour's attack (0.78x) against York United's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 19/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
York United Win
42%
2.37
32%
3.09
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
York United xG
Total xG
1.79
0.74
Valour xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.94
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
20%
4.97
9%
11.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.6 | 12.4 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.5 | 13.0 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.2 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs Valour?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are York United and Valour expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for York United and 0.74 for Valour, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs Valour?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
York United come into this having played 18 games, going 6W 8D 4L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-D. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Valour sit at 1.28 PPG from 18 outings (7W 2D 9L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Valour is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for York United against 1.28 for Valour. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
York United's home form reads 3W 4D 1L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Valour have taken 0.50 points per game from 8 outings (1W 1D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valour's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, York United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
York United are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Valour are on 1.11 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valour in 28%.
Defensively: Valour in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Blended
Valour
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are York United and Valour in coming into this match?
York United have gone 6W 8D 4L in their last 18 games (1.44 PPG), while Valour have gone 7W 2D 9L in their last 18 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York United at home or Valour away?
York United's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York United at home: 1.62 PPG; Valour away: 0.50 PPG.
Have York United or Valour been keeping clean sheets recently?
York United have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Valour in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 28 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, York United have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Valour — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
York United
2
Draws
3
Valour
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Valour?
From 10 meetings on record, York United have won 5, Valour have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did York United and Valour last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2025, when York United 1-0 Valour.
Who has won more matches between York United and Valour?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York United 38%, Valour 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (York United) and 50% (Valour).
On the defensive side: York United keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; York United have failed to score in 38% of games; Valour in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / Valour away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when York United play Valour?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of York United's recent matches and 50% of Valour's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is York United vs Valour usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of York United's recent games and 50% of Valour's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do York United and Valour tend to score early?
York United have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Valour in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as York United edge out Valour 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
York United beat Valour 2-1 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.05 xG and Valour 0.74 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. York United beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 0.83 / defence 0.92 against Valour attack 0.78 / defence 1.25, drawn from 19/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it York United 42% | Draw 32% | Valour 25%, with York United to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 44%, Valour 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Valour's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — York United 1.44 PPG, Valour 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the York United win broke the near-deadlock. York United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.