Vancouver FC 1-1 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pacific FC at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Vancouver FC welcome Pacific FC to Willoughby Community Park Stadium in Canadian Premier League (matchday 4). Kick-off is Sunday 27 April 2025 at 02:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Vancouver FC have gone 1W 4D 5L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Vancouver FC at home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Pacific FC stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Pacific FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Pacific FC — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Vancouver FC, 1 for Pacific FC and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2024, ended Vancouver FC 0–3 Pacific FC — a Pacific FC win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Vancouver FC in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Pacific FC in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vancouver FC 55% versus Pacific FC 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vancouver FC 57% | Pacific FC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vancouver FC 1.20 xG and Pacific FC 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vancouver FC attack 0.806 / defence 1.253 | Pacific FC attack 0.906 / defence 1.184. League average goals — home 1.255 / away 1.442. Vancouver FC's defence rating of 1.253 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Pacific FC's projected output up. Data: built from Vancouver FC's last 31 games and Pacific FC's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Vancouver FC 27% | Draw 26% | Pacific FC 47%. Fair-value odds: Vancouver FC 3.65 | Draw 3.91 | Pacific FC 2.13. Pacific FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pacific FC as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pacific FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — low conviction — though recent form (Vancouver FC's last 10 home games and Pacific FC's last 10 away games) averaging only 2.0 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Vancouver FC 40% (last 10 home games) | Pacific FC 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
The Poisson model's sample (Vancouver FC 31 games, Pacific FC 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, matchday 4 | Venue: Willoughby Community Park Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 April 2025 at 02:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vancouver FC 27% | Draw 26% | Pacific FC 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Vancouver FC 1.20 / Pacific FC 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Vancouver FC attack 0.806 / def 1.253 | Pacific FC attack 0.906 / def 1.184 | league avg home 1.255 / away 1.442 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Vancouver FC xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Pacific FC xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC FAQs
What time does Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC kick off?
Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC kicked off at 02:00 UK time on Sunday 27 April 2025 at Willoughby Community Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC?
Vancouver FC 1 - 1 Pacific FC.
Where is Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at Willoughby Community Park Stadium.
What competition is Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC part of?
Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC is a Canadian Premier League fixture (matchday 4) (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives Vancouver FC a 27% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 47% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Vancouver FC and Pacific FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Vancouver FC's attack rating (0.81) and Pacific FC's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pacific FC's attack versus Vancouver FC's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Vancouver FC's last 31 games and Pacific FC's last 31, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
27%
3.65
26%
3.91
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Vancouver FC xG
Total xG
2.83
1.64
Pacific FC xG
3.65
27%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
19%
5.13
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
5%
18.71
14%
7.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.6 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.9 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Vancouver FC and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Vancouver FC and 1.64 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vancouver FC's recent record stands at 15W 14D 27L from 56 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-D in the last five.
Pacific FC, meanwhile, have gone 20W 13D 23L across 56 games — 1.30 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vancouver FC on 1.05 PPG, Pacific FC on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Vancouver FC have managed 9W 7D 12L from their last 28 home games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pacific FC's away record stands at 8W 6D 14L across their last 28 away games, a 1.07 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Vancouver FC are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.18 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vancouver FC
Current Season
Pacific FC
Current Season
Vancouver FC (Home) vs Pacific FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Vancouver FC
Current Season
Pacific FC
Current Season
❓ Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC Form FAQs
What form are Vancouver FC and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
Vancouver FC have gone 15W 14D 27L in their last 56 games (1.05 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 20W 13D 23L in their last 56 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vancouver FC at home or Pacific FC away?
Vancouver FC's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vancouver FC at home: 1.21 PPG; Pacific FC away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Vancouver FC or Pacific FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vancouver FC have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Pacific FC in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2024. All of them came in Canadian Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Sep 2024, when Pacific FC won Pacific FC 3-0 Vancouver FC.
Vancouver FC's record when hosting Pacific FC specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Vancouver FC
5
Draws
2
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and Pacific FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Vancouver FC have won 3, Pacific FC have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Vancouver FC and Pacific FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Pacific FC 1-1 Vancouver FC.
Who has won more matches between Vancouver FC and Pacific FC?
Vancouver FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vancouver FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vancouver FC 57%, Pacific FC 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Vancouver FC) and 46% (Pacific FC).
On the defensive side: Vancouver FC have failed to score in 32% of games; Pacific FC in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vancouver FC home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Vancouver FC and Pacific FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Vancouver FC's recent matches and 46% of Pacific FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Vancouver FC and Pacific FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Vancouver FC's recent games and 46% of Pacific FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vancouver FC and Pacific FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Vancouver FC's recent matches and 64% of Pacific FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vancouver FC and Pacific FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vancouver FC and Pacific FC finished level at 1-1 at Willoughby Community Park Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vancouver FC 1.20 xG and Pacific FC 1.64 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vancouver FC attack 0.81 / defence 1.25 against Pacific FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.18, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Vancouver FC 27% | Draw 26% | Pacific FC 47%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vancouver FC 57%, Pacific FC 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vancouver FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Pacific FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vancouver FC 1.05 PPG, Pacific FC 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.