Supra du Quebec 0-1 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Supra du Quebec at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
CEPSUM Stadium plays host to Supra du Quebec versus Cavalry FC in Canadian Premier League, Group Stage. Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Cavalry FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cavalry FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Supra du Quebec 1.55 xG and Cavalry FC 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Cavalry FC attack 1.008 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.810 / away 1.268. Data: 0 Supra du Quebec games / 28 Cavalry FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Supra du Quebec 38% | Draw 28% | Cavalry FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Supra du Quebec 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Cavalry FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Supra du Quebec at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Supra du Quebec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: CEPSUM Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Supra du Quebec 38% | Draw 28% | Cavalry FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 63% | xG Supra du Quebec 1.55 / Cavalry FC 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Cavalry FC attack 1.008 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.810 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Supra du Quebec (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Supra du Quebec xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Cavalry FC xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC kick off?
Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 3 May 2026 at CEPSUM Stadium.
What was the final score in Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC?
Supra du Quebec 0 - 1 Cavalry FC.
Where is Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at CEPSUM Stadium.
What competition is Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC part of?
Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives Supra du Quebec a 38% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Supra du Quebec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Supra du Quebec and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Supra du Quebec and Cavalry FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Supra du Quebec and Cavalry FC in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Cavalry FC away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Supra du Quebec's attack at 0.85x the league average against Cavalry FC's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cavalry FC's attack (1.01x) against Supra du Quebec's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 0/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Supra du Quebec Win
38%
2.64
28%
3.59
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Supra du Quebec xG
Total xG
3.02
1.47
Cavalry FC xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
9%
11.46
7%
13.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.1 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Supra du Quebec and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Supra du Quebec and 1.47 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Supra du Quebec
Pre-Season
Cavalry FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Supra du Quebec have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cavalry FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Supra du Quebec
1
Draws
2
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Supra du Quebec and Cavalry FC?
From 3 meetings on record, Supra du Quebec have won 0, Cavalry FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Supra du Quebec and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Supra du Quebec 1-1 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between Supra du Quebec and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Supra du Quebec home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Cavalry FC defy the odds to beat Supra du Quebec 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat Supra du Quebec 0-1 at CEPSUM Stadium, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Supra du Quebec 1.55 xG and Cavalry FC 1.47 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Supra du Quebec fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Supra du Quebec attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Cavalry FC attack 1.01 / defence 1.01, drawn from 0/28 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Supra du Quebec 38% | Draw 28% | Cavalry FC 34%, with Supra du Quebec to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Cavalry FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.