Pacific FC 2-1 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates York United at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Pacific FC face York United.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
York United travel to Starlight Stadium to take on Pacific FC in Canadian Premier League (matchday 6). The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 May 2025 at 02:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Pacific FC have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Pacific FC's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, York United stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, York United have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pacific FC 1.40 PPG, York United 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Pacific FC, 1 for York United and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Oct 2024, ended Pacific FC 0–2 York United — a York United win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Pacific FC in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
York United in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacific FC 48% versus York United 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 44% | York United 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 1.22 xG and York United 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 0.914 / defence 0.908 | York United attack 1.006 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.588. Data: built from Pacific FC's last 33 games and York United's last 33. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 29% | Draw 31% | York United 40%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 3.46 | Draw 3.19 | York United 2.51. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates York United as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on York United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Pacific FC 40% (last 10 home games) | York United 60% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Pacific FC 33 games, York United 33) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, matchday 6 | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 11 May 2025 at 02:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 29% | Draw 31% | York United 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Pacific FC 1.22 / York United 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 0.914 / def 0.908 | York United attack 1.006 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.588 • Poisson stance: York United (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
1.45
York United xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pacific FC vs York United FAQs
What time does Pacific FC vs York United kick off?
Pacific FC vs York United kicked off at 02:00 UK time on Sunday 11 May 2025 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs York United?
Pacific FC 2 - 1 York United.
Where is Pacific FC vs York United being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs York United part of?
Pacific FC vs York United is a Canadian Premier League fixture (matchday 6) (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 29% chance of winning, York United a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making York United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs York United?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Pacific FC and York United will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Pacific FC vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pacific FC's attack at 0.91x the league average against York United's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, York United's attack versus Pacific FC's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Pacific FC's last 33 games and York United's last 33, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
York United Win
29%
3.46
31%
3.19
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
2.67
1.45
York United xG
3.46
29%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
7%
14.77
12%
8.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.1 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pacific FC vs York United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Pacific FC and 1.45 for York United, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pacific FC's recent record stands at 21W 14D 24L from 59 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five.
York United, meanwhile, have gone 23W 12D 24L across 59 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-L-L-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pacific FC on 1.31 PPG, York United on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pacific FC have managed 11W 7D 10L from their last 28 home games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
York United's away record stands at 10W 7D 11L across their last 28 away games, a 1.32 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Pacific FC are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.25 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Current Season
York United
Current Season
Pacific FC (Home) vs York United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pacific FC
Current Season
York United
Current Season
❓ Pacific FC vs York United Form FAQs
What form are Pacific FC and York United in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 21W 14D 24L in their last 59 games (1.31 PPG), while York United have gone 23W 12D 24L in their last 59 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or York United away?
Pacific FC's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 1.43 PPG; York United away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2024. All of them came in Canadian Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 27 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 24 Aug 2025, when York United won York United 5-1 Pacific FC.
Pacific FC's record when hosting York United specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Pacific FC
3
Draws
4
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Pacific FC vs York United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and York United?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Pacific FC have won 3, York United have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and York United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 September 2026: York United 3-4 Pacific FC.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and York United?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacific FC 43%, York United 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Pacific FC) and 64% (York United).
On the defensive side: Pacific FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pacific FC vs York United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pacific FC and York United matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Pacific FC's games and 68% of York United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Pacific FC and York United matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Pacific FC's recent games and 64% of York United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pacific FC and York United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Pacific FC's recent matches and 61% of York United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pacific FC defy the odds to beat York United 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacific FC beat York United 2-1 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.22 xG and York United 1.45 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 0.91 / defence 0.91 against York United attack 1.01 / defence 1.01, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 29% | Draw 31% | York United 40%, with York United to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Pacific FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 44%, York United 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
York United's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pacific FC 1.31 PPG, York United 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pacific FC win broke the near-deadlock. Pacific FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.