Pacific FC 1-0 Vancouver FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacific FC at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Vancouver FC travel to Starlight Stadium to take on Pacific FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 April 2023, 00:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pacific FC stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Pacific FC's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Starlight Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 1.55 xG and Vancouver FC 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 1.002 / defence 0.994 | Vancouver FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.229. Data: 28 Pacific FC games / 0 Vancouver FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 48% | Draw 28% | Vancouver FC 24%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Vancouver FC 4.17. Pacific FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pacific FC at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pacific FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Apr 2023, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 48% | Draw 28% | Vancouver FC 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Pacific FC 1.55 / Vancouver FC 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 1.002 / def 0.994 | Vancouver FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Vancouver FC xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC kick off?
Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 16 April 2023 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC?
Pacific FC 1 - 0 Vancouver FC.
Where is Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC part of?
Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 48% chance of winning, Vancouver FC a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Pacific FC and Vancouver FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Vancouver FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pacific FC and Vancouver FC in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Pacific FC home split: 1.30 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pacific FC's attack at 1.00x the league average against Vancouver FC's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vancouver FC's attack versus Pacific FC's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
48%
2.10
28%
3.54
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
2.58
1.04
Vancouver FC xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
17%
5.92
5%
19.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.1 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and Vancouver FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Pacific FC and 1.04 for Vancouver FC, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Pre-Season
Vancouver FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 14 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Vancouver FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Sep 2024, when Pacific FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pacific FC's record when hosting Vancouver FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pacific FC
3
Draws
5
Vancouver FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Vancouver FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Pacific FC have won 2, Vancouver FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and Vancouver FC last play each other?
They last met on 14 June 2026, when Vancouver FC 2-1 Pacific FC.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and Vancouver FC?
Vancouver FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / Vancouver FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Pacific FC edge out Vancouver FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacific FC beat Vancouver FC 1-0 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.55 xG and Vancouver FC 1.04 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Vancouver FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 1.00 / defence 0.99 against Vancouver FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 28/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 48% | Draw 28% | Vancouver FC 24%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.