Forge 0-2 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Forge at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Forge vs York United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees York United travel to Tim Hortons Field to take on Forge. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 September 2021, 21:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Forge have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Forge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Forge at Tim Hortons Field this season: 5W 1D 3L from 9 home games — 1.78 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, York United stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
York United away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Forge carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Forge trading profile (16 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
York United trading profile (16 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forge 25% versus York United 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forge 31% | York United 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 1.89 xG and York United 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 1.128 / defence 0.953 | York United attack 1.013 / defence 1.599. League average goals — home 1.046 / away 1.092. York United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.599 — this is suppressing Forge's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Forge games / 16 York United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Forge 57% | Draw 22% | York United 21%. Fair-value odds: Forge 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | York United 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Forge (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Forge at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Forge 33% | York United 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Tim Hortons Field • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 57% | Draw 22% | York United 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 55% | xG Forge 1.89 / York United 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 1.128 / def 0.953 | York United attack 1.013 / def 1.599 | league avg home 1.046 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: Forge (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Forge xG
Expected Goals
1.05
York United xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forge vs York United kick off?
Forge vs York United kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Tim Hortons Field.
What was the final score in Forge vs York United?
Forge 0 - 2 York United.
Where is Forge vs York United being played?
The match is being played at Tim Hortons Field.
What competition is Forge vs York United part of?
Forge vs York United is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 57% chance of winning, York United a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs York United?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Forge and York United will score (BTTS).
Will Forge vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and York United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Forge and York United in?
Forge (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. York United (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Forge's attack rating (1.13) and York United's defence rating (1.60), the model arrives at 1.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, York United's attack versus Forge's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
57%
1.76
22%
4.48
21%
4.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Forge xG
Total xG
2.94
1.05
York United xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
4.79
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
15%
6.59
Win to Nil
20%
5.05
3%
31.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 10.5 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forge vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Forge and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Forge and 1.05 for York United, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Forge vs York United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 16 outings, Forge have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 9W 1D 6L record — D-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Forge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
York United's form line: 4W 7D 5L from 16 games, 1.19 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-D. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Forge are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against York United.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Forge have posted 1.78 PPG from 9 outings (5W 1D 3L).
On the road, York United have gone 2W 4D 3L from 9 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forge come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Forge are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.19 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Forge have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; York United in 62%.
Defensively: Forge have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forge
Blended
York United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forge and York United in coming into this match?
Forge have gone 9W 1D 6L in their last 16 games (1.75 PPG), while York United have gone 4W 7D 5L in their last 16 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forge at home or York United away?
Forge's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forge at home: 1.78 PPG; York United away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Forge or York United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forge have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, York United in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Forge and York United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Forge have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Apr 2024, when Forge won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Forge's record when hosting York United specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Forge
3
Draws
0
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and York United?
From 10 meetings on record, Forge have won 7, York United have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Forge and York United last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when York United 1-3 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Forge and York United?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forge 33%, York United 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Forge) and 67% (York United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Forge keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forge home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forge play York United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Forge's recent matches and 67% of York United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Forge vs York United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Forge's matches and 67% of York United's.
Do Forge and York United tend to score early?
Forge have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, York United in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
York United cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Forge.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
York United beat Forge 0-2 at Tim Hortons Field, Regular Season - 8, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.89 xG and York United 1.05 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Forge fell 1.9 short of their projected output. York United outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.13 / defence 0.95 against York United attack 1.01 / defence 1.60, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forge 57% | Draw 22% | York United 21%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a York United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 31%, York United 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forge's trading profile (16 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
York United's trading profile (16 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.19. Form was overturned, with York United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Forge (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. York United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.