Forge 3-0 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Forge at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Forge vs York United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees York United travel to Tim Hortons Field to take on Forge. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 June 2024, 21:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Forge have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Forge at Tim Hortons Field this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, York United stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
York United away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Forge carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Forge register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, York United in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Forge, 0 for York United and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2024, ended 3–0 with Forge winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Forge trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
York United trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forge 47% versus York United 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forge 46% | York United 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 1.70 xG and York United 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 0.972 / defence 1.125 | York United attack 1.099 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.018. Data: 34 Forge games / 35 York United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Forge 44% | Draw 31% | York United 25%. Fair-value odds: Forge 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | York United 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Forge at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Forge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Forge 60% | York United 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Tim Hortons Field • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Jun 2024, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 44% | Draw 31% | York United 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 62% | xG Forge 1.70 / York United 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 0.972 / def 1.125 | York United attack 1.099 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.018 • Poisson stance: Forge (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Forge xG
Expected Goals
1.26
York United xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forge vs York United kick off?
Forge vs York United kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 1 June 2024 at Tim Hortons Field.
What was the final score in Forge vs York United?
Forge 3 - 0 York United.
Where is Forge vs York United being played?
The match is being played at Tim Hortons Field.
What competition is Forge vs York United part of?
Forge vs York United is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 44% chance of winning, York United a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs York United?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Forge and York United will score (BTTS).
Will Forge vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and York United?
Record (1 meetings): Forge 1W | Draws 0 | York United 0W.
What form are Forge and York United in?
Forge (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. York United (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Forge's attack rating (0.97) and York United's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, York United's attack versus Forge's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (34/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
44%
2.25
31%
3.28
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Forge xG
Total xG
2.96
1.26
York United xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
18%
5.47
Win to Nil
13%
7.93
5%
21.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.1 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forge vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Forge and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Forge and 1.26 for York United, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Forge vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, Forge have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 28W 14D 15L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five.
York United's form line: 20W 12D 25L from 57 games, 1.26 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Forge are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against York United.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Forge have posted 1.68 PPG from 28 outings (13W 8D 7L).
On the road, York United have gone 11W 6D 11L from 28 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Forge are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.16 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: Forge have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forge
Current Season
York United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forge and York United in coming into this match?
Forge have gone 28W 14D 15L in their last 57 games (1.72 PPG), while York United have gone 20W 12D 25L in their last 57 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forge at home or York United away?
Forge's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forge at home: 1.68 PPG; York United away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Forge or York United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forge have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, York United in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Forge and York United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Forge have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Apr 2024, when Forge won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Forge's record when hosting York United specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Forge
3
Draws
0
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and York United?
From 10 meetings on record, Forge have won 7, York United have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Forge and York United last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when York United 1-3 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Forge and York United?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Forge see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
York United see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forge 57%, York United 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Forge) and 57% (York United).
On the defensive side: York United in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forge home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forge play York United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Forge's games and 54% of York United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Forge vs York United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Forge's recent games and 57% of York United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Forge run riot with a 3-0 hammering of York United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forge beat York United 3-0 at Tim Hortons Field, Regular Season - 4, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.70 xG and York United 1.26 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Forge beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. York United landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 0.97 / defence 1.12 against York United attack 1.10 / defence 1.14, drawn from 34/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Forge 44% | Draw 31% | York United 25%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 46%, York United 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forge's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
York United's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Forge (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. York United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.