Forge 0-1 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Forge at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Forge vs Pacific FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tim Hortons Field plays host to Forge versus Pacific FC in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Thursday 6 October 2022 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
Forge's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Forge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Forge's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Tim Hortons Field this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Forge are significantly better at Tim Hortons Field than their overall form suggests.
Pacific FC have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacific FC's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Pacific FC arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Forge half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Pacific FC half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forge 39% versus Pacific FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forge 46% | Pacific FC 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 1.51 xG and Pacific FC 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 1.248 / defence 0.877 | Pacific FC attack 1.037 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.303 / away 1.161. Data: 54 Forge games / 54 Pacific FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Forge 48% | Draw 26% | Pacific FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Forge 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Pacific FC 3.85. Forge hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Forge are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Pacific FC (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Forge if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Forge 50% | Pacific FC 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Tim Hortons Field • Kick-off: Thursday 6 Oct 2022, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 48% | Draw 26% | Pacific FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Forge 1.51 / Pacific FC 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 1.248 / def 0.877 | Pacific FC attack 1.037 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.303 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Forge (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Forge xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Pacific FC xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forge vs Pacific FC kick off?
Forge vs Pacific FC kicked off at 00:00 on Thursday 6 October 2022 at Tim Hortons Field.
What was the final score in Forge vs Pacific FC?
Forge 0 - 1 Pacific FC.
Where is Forge vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at Tim Hortons Field.
What competition is Forge vs Pacific FC part of?
Forge vs Pacific FC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 48% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Forge and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will Forge vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Pacific FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Forge and Pacific FC in?
Forge (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Pacific FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Forge's attack at 1.25x the league average against Pacific FC's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pacific FC's attack (1.04x) against Forge's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
48%
2.09
26%
3.88
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Forge xG
Total xG
2.57
1.05
Pacific FC xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
17%
6.00
6%
17.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.2 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forge vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Forge and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Forge and 1.05 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Forge vs Pacific FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Forge come into this having played 56 games, going 30W 7D 19L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-W. The sample for Forge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pacific FC sit at 1.68 PPG from 56 outings (27W 13D 16L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.73 PPG for Forge against 1.68 for Pacific FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Forge's home form reads 16W 3D 9L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Pacific FC have taken 1.39 points per game from 28 outings (11W 6D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forge come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Forge are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.52 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Forge have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forge
Blended
Pacific FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forge and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
Forge have gone 30W 7D 19L in their last 56 games (1.73 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 27W 13D 16L in their last 56 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forge at home or Pacific FC away?
Forge's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forge at home: 1.82 PPG; Pacific FC away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Forge or Pacific FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forge have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Pacific FC in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Forge go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Forge won 4-0 on 27 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Forge have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Pacific FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Forge
1
Draws
1
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Pacific FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Forge have won 8, Pacific FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Forge and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Pacific FC 0-1 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Forge and Pacific FC?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Pacific FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forge 43%, Pacific FC 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Forge) and 46% (Pacific FC).
On the defensive side: Forge keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Pacific FC in 32%; Pacific FC in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forge home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forge play Pacific FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Forge's recent matches and 43% of Pacific FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Forge vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Forge's recent games and 46% of Pacific FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Forge and Pacific FC tend to score early?
Forge have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Pacific FC in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pacific FC defy the odds to beat Forge 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacific FC beat Forge 0-1 at Tim Hortons Field, Regular Season - 12, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.51 xG and Pacific FC 1.05 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Forge fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.25 / defence 0.88 against Pacific FC attack 1.04 / defence 0.93, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forge 48% | Draw 26% | Pacific FC 26%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Pacific FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 46%, Pacific FC 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forge's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pacific FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Forge 1.73 PPG, Pacific FC 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pacific FC win broke the near-deadlock. Forge (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward. Pacific FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.