Forge 2-1 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Cavalry FC at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Forge vs Cavalry FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Forge host Cavalry FC at Tim Hortons Field in Canadian Premier League, Grand Final. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 October 2023 at 00:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Forge — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Forge's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Tim Hortons Field this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Cavalry FC have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Cavalry FC have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Cavalry FC are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Forge register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Cavalry FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Forge in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Cavalry FC in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forge 47% versus Cavalry FC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forge 47% | Cavalry FC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 1.19 xG and Cavalry FC 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 1.052 / defence 0.932 | Cavalry FC attack 1.055 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.312. Data: 56 Forge games / 56 Cavalry FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Forge 34% | Draw 27% | Cavalry FC 39%. Fair-value odds: Forge 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Cavalry FC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cavalry FC are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Forge 60% | Cavalry FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Grand Final | Venue: Tim Hortons Field • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Oct 2023, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 34% | Draw 27% | Cavalry FC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Forge 1.19 / Cavalry FC 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 1.052 / def 0.932 | Cavalry FC attack 1.055 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.268 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Forge xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Cavalry FC xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forge vs Cavalry FC kick off?
Forge vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Tim Hortons Field.
What was the final score in Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Forge 2 - 1 Cavalry FC.
Where is Forge vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at Tim Hortons Field.
What competition is Forge vs Cavalry FC part of?
Forge vs Cavalry FC is a Grand Final fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 34% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Forge and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will Forge vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Cavalry FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Forge and Cavalry FC in?
Forge (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Cavalry FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Forge's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Cavalry FC's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Cavalry FC's attack versus Forge's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
34%
2.93
27%
3.69
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Forge xG
Total xG
2.48
1.29
Cavalry FC xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
9%
10.63
12%
8.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.8 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.8 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Forge and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Forge and 1.29 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Forge come into this having played 60 games, going 28W 15D 17L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Cavalry FC sit at 1.77 PPG from 60 outings (31W 13D 16L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Forge on 1.65 PPG, Cavalry FC on 1.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Forge's home form reads 13W 9D 7L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.66 PPG return.
Away from home, Cavalry FC have taken 1.34 points per game from 29 outings (10W 9D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.77 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cavalry FC's season.
The Goals Picture
Forge are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.50 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Forge have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forge
Current Season
Cavalry FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forge and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
Forge have gone 28W 15D 17L in their last 60 games (1.65 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 31W 13D 16L in their last 60 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forge at home or Cavalry FC away?
Forge's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forge at home: 1.66 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 1.34 PPG.
Have Forge or Cavalry FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forge have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Cavalry FC in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Forge and Cavalry FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 31 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Aug 2025, when Cavalry FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Forge's record when hosting Cavalry FC specifically: 3W 2D 2L from 7 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Forge
3
Draws
4
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Cavalry FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Forge have won 3, Cavalry FC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Forge and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when Forge 1-0 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between Forge and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Forge see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forge 55%, Cavalry FC 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Forge) and 52% (Cavalry FC).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forge home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forge play Cavalry FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Forge's games and 55% of Cavalry FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Forge vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Forge's recent games and 52% of Cavalry FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Forge and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
Forge have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Forge defy the odds to beat Cavalry FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forge beat Cavalry FC 2-1 at Tim Hortons Field, Grand Final, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.19 xG and Cavalry FC 1.29 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Forge beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.05 / defence 0.93 against Cavalry FC attack 1.05 / defence 0.90, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forge 34% | Draw 27% | Cavalry FC 39%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Forge win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 47%, Cavalry FC 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forge's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Forge 1.65 PPG, Cavalry FC 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Forge win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.