FC Edmonton 1-1 Valour – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Edmonton at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Edmonton vs Valour fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Edmonton and Valour meet at Clarke Field in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 April 2022 at 21:00 UTC.
Current Form
FC Edmonton's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
FC Edmonton's home record at Clarke Field: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Valour have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Valour have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for FC Edmonton, 1.20 for Valour — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — FC Edmonton register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Valour in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for FC Edmonton, 1 for Valour and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FC Edmonton — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Valour — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Edmonton 61% versus Valour 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Edmonton 46% | Valour 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Edmonton 1.52 xG and Valour 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Edmonton attack 1.041 / defence 1.074 | Valour attack 1.077 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.048. Data: 28 FC Edmonton games / 28 Valour games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: FC Edmonton 44% | Draw 25% | Valour 30%. Fair-value odds: FC Edmonton 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Valour 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Edmonton as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Edmonton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: FC Edmonton 70% | Valour 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Edmonton vs Valour | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Clarke Field • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Edmonton 44% | Draw 25% | Valour 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG FC Edmonton 1.52 / Valour 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: FC Edmonton attack 1.041 / def 1.074 | Valour attack 1.077 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.048 • Poisson stance: FC Edmonton (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
FC Edmonton xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Valour xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Edmonton vs Valour kick off?
FC Edmonton vs Valour kicked off at 21:00 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Clarke Field.
What was the final score in FC Edmonton vs Valour?
FC Edmonton 1 - 1 Valour.
Where is FC Edmonton vs Valour being played?
The match is being played at Clarke Field.
What competition is FC Edmonton vs Valour part of?
FC Edmonton vs Valour is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win FC Edmonton vs Valour?
Our statistical model gives FC Edmonton a 44% chance of winning, Valour a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Edmonton the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Edmonton vs Valour?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FC Edmonton and Valour will score (BTTS).
Will FC Edmonton vs Valour have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and Valour?
Record (6 meetings): FC Edmonton 2W | Draws 3 | Valour 1W.
What form are FC Edmonton and Valour in?
FC Edmonton (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Valour (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC Edmonton's attack at 1.04x the league average against Valour's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Valour's attack (1.08x) against FC Edmonton's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Edmonton Win
44%
2.26
25%
3.95
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
FC Edmonton xG
Total xG
2.73
1.21
Valour xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
13%
7.58
7%
15.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.0 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Edmonton vs Valour?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are FC Edmonton and Valour expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for FC Edmonton and 1.21 for Valour, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Edmonton vs Valour?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 28 outings, FC Edmonton have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 6W 10D 12L record — L-D-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Valour's form line: 10W 5D 13L from 28 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for FC Edmonton against 1.25 for Valour. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC Edmonton have posted 1.36 PPG from 14 outings (5W 4D 5L).
On the road, Valour have gone 3W 2D 9L from 14 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valour's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Edmonton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Edmonton are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Valour are on 1.36 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Edmonton have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Valour in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Edmonton
Current Season
Valour
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Edmonton and Valour in coming into this match?
FC Edmonton have gone 6W 10D 12L in their last 28 games (1.00 PPG), while Valour have gone 10W 5D 13L in their last 28 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Edmonton at home or Valour away?
FC Edmonton's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Edmonton at home: 1.36 PPG; Valour away: 0.79 PPG.
Have FC Edmonton or Valour been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Edmonton have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Valour in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valour won 3-0 on 25 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Edmonton have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Valour — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Edmonton
6
Draws
1
Valour
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and Valour?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Edmonton have won 3, Valour have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did FC Edmonton and Valour last play each other?
They last met on 8 October 2022, when FC Edmonton 3-1 Valour.
Who has won more matches between FC Edmonton and Valour?
FC Edmonton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Edmonton see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Edmonton 57%, Valour 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (FC Edmonton) and 57% (Valour).
On the defensive side: Valour in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Edmonton home games / Valour away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Edmonton play Valour?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of FC Edmonton's games and 57% of Valour's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Edmonton vs Valour usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of FC Edmonton's recent games and 57% of Valour's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Edmonton and Valour tend to score early?
FC Edmonton have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Valour in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Edmonton and Valour share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Clarke Field, Regular Season - 2, as FC Edmonton and Valour drew 1-1 in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Edmonton 1.52 xG and Valour 1.21 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Edmonton attack 1.04 / defence 1.07 against Valour attack 1.08 / defence 1.09, drawn from 28/28 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Edmonton 44% | Draw 25% | Valour 30%, with FC Edmonton to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Edmonton 46%, Valour 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Edmonton's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Valour's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Edmonton 1.00 PPG, Valour 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.