FC Edmonton 0-0 Valour – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC Edmonton at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Edmonton vs Valour fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Edmonton and Valour meet at Clarke Field in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Friday 13 August 2021 at 02:00 UTC.
Current Form
FC Edmonton's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Edmonton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Edmonton's home record at Clarke Field: 3W 1D 1L from 5 Canadian Premier League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — FC Edmonton are significantly better at Clarke Field than their overall form suggests.
Valour have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Valour, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Valour have gone 2W 0D 5L from 7 away fixtures this term (0.86 PPG). Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.86 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for FC Edmonton, 1.50 for Valour — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for FC Edmonton, 0 for Valour and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Aug 2021, ended 3–1 with FC Edmonton winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FC Edmonton — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games).
Valour — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Edmonton 54% versus Valour 27%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (FC Edmonton 36% | Valour 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Edmonton 1.35 xG and Valour 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Edmonton attack 1.069 / defence 1.036 | Valour attack 0.796 / defence 1.289. League average goals — home 0.977 / away 0.885. Valour bring a strong defensive rating of 1.289 — this is suppressing FC Edmonton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 FC Edmonton games / 11 Valour games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Edmonton 51% | Draw 28% | Valour 20%. Fair-value odds: FC Edmonton 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Valour 5.00. FC Edmonton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Edmonton as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Edmonton if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: FC Edmonton 40% | Valour 43% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Edmonton vs Valour | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Clarke Field • Kick-off: Friday 13 Aug 2021, 02:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Edmonton 51% | Draw 28% | Valour 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 38% | xG FC Edmonton 1.35 / Valour 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: FC Edmonton attack 1.069 / def 1.036 | Valour attack 0.796 / def 1.289 | league avg home 0.977 / away 0.885 • Poisson stance: FC Edmonton (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
FC Edmonton xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Valour xG
38%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Edmonton vs Valour kick off?
FC Edmonton vs Valour kicked off at 02:00 on Friday 13 August 2021 at Clarke Field.
What was the final score in FC Edmonton vs Valour?
FC Edmonton 0 - 0 Valour.
Where is FC Edmonton vs Valour being played?
The match is being played at Clarke Field.
What competition is FC Edmonton vs Valour part of?
FC Edmonton vs Valour is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win FC Edmonton vs Valour?
Our statistical model gives FC Edmonton a 51% chance of winning, Valour a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Edmonton the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Edmonton vs Valour?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both FC Edmonton and Valour will score (BTTS).
Will FC Edmonton vs Valour have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and Valour?
Record (1 meetings): FC Edmonton 1W | Draws 0 | Valour 0W.
What form are FC Edmonton and Valour in?
FC Edmonton (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Valour (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC Edmonton's attack at 1.07x the league average against Valour's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Valour's attack (0.80x) against FC Edmonton's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Edmonton Win
51%
1.94
28%
3.54
20%
4.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
FC Edmonton xG
Total xG
2.08
0.73
Valour xG
1.94
51%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
4.94
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
25%
4.03
5%
18.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 9.2 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 12.3 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 8.3 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Edmonton vs Valour?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are FC Edmonton and Valour expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for FC Edmonton and 0.73 for Valour, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Edmonton vs Valour?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 11 outings, FC Edmonton have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 3W 3D 5L record — W-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for FC Edmonton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valour's form line: 6W 0D 5L from 11 games, 1.64 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Valour is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Valour are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Edmonton.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC Edmonton have posted 2.00 PPG from 5 outings (3W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — FC Edmonton are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Valour have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.64 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valour's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Edmonton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Edmonton are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Valour are on 1.27 scored and 0.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valour in 27%.
Defensively: Valour in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Edmonton
Blended
Valour
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Edmonton and Valour in coming into this match?
FC Edmonton have gone 3W 3D 5L in their last 11 games (1.09 PPG), while Valour have gone 6W 0D 5L in their last 11 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Edmonton at home or Valour away?
FC Edmonton's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Edmonton at home: 2.00 PPG; Valour away: 0.60 PPG.
Have FC Edmonton or Valour been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Edmonton have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Valour in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valour won 3-0 on 25 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Edmonton have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Valour — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Edmonton
6
Draws
1
Valour
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and Valour?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Edmonton have won 3, Valour have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did FC Edmonton and Valour last play each other?
They last met on 8 October 2022, when FC Edmonton 3-1 Valour.
Who has won more matches between FC Edmonton and Valour?
FC Edmonton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Edmonton tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Edmonton 40%, Valour 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for FC Edmonton and 40% for Valour.
On the defensive side: FC Edmonton keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Valour in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Edmonton home games / Valour away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Edmonton play Valour?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of FC Edmonton's recent matches and 40% of Valour's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Edmonton vs Valour usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of FC Edmonton's recent games and 40% of Valour's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Edmonton and Valour tend to score early?
FC Edmonton have had a goal before half-time in 20% of their recent matches, Valour in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC Edmonton's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Edmonton and Valour finished level at 0-0 at Clarke Field, Regular Season - 6, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Edmonton 1.35 xG and Valour 0.73 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Edmonton fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Edmonton attack 1.07 / defence 1.04 against Valour attack 0.80 / defence 1.29, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Edmonton 51% | Draw 28% | Valour 20%, with FC Edmonton to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Edmonton 36%, Valour 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Edmonton's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Valour's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Valour arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Edmonton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Valour (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.