Cavalry FC 1-0 HFX Wanderers FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cavalry FC at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cavalry FC face HFX Wanderers FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cavalry FC and HFX Wanderers FC meet at ATCO Field in Canadian Premier League (matchday 7). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 July 2023 at 22:00 UK time.
Current Form
Cavalry FC's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cavalry FC at home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
HFX Wanderers FC have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, HFX Wanderers FC have gone 0W 7D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Cavalry FC's last 10 home games and HFX Wanderers FC's last 10 away games) — Cavalry FC have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, HFX Wanderers FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Cavalry FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 42 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
HFX Wanderers FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 42 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 55% versus HFX Wanderers FC 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 50% | HFX Wanderers FC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.53 xG and HFX Wanderers FC 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.075 / defence 0.970 | HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.886 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.259 / away 1.230. Data: built from Cavalry FC's last 42 games and HFX Wanderers FC's last 42.
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 47% | Draw 29% | HFX Wanderers FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 2.14 | Draw 3.50 | HFX Wanderers FC 4.06. Cavalry FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cavalry FC at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cavalry FC 70% (last 10 home games) | HFX Wanderers FC 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, matchday 7 | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Saturday 15 July 2023 at 22:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 47% | Draw 29% | HFX Wanderers FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Cavalry FC 1.53 / HFX Wanderers FC 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.075 / def 0.970 | HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.886 / def 1.133 | league avg home 1.259 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
1.06
HFX Wanderers FC xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC FAQs
What time does Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC kick off?
Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC kicked off at 22:00 UK time on Saturday 15 July 2023 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Cavalry FC 1 - 0 HFX Wanderers FC.
Where is Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC part of?
Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC is a Canadian Premier League fixture (matchday 7) (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 47% chance of winning, HFX Wanderers FC a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cavalry FC and HFX Wanderers FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cavalry FC's attack rating (1.07) and HFX Wanderers FC's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — HFX Wanderers FC's attack (0.89x) against Cavalry FC's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from Cavalry FC's last 42 games and HFX Wanderers FC's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
47%
2.14
29%
3.50
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
2.59
1.06
HFX Wanderers FC xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
16%
6.15
5%
18.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.2 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and HFX Wanderers FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 1.06 for HFX Wanderers FC, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cavalry FC come into this having played 42 games, going 19W 11D 12L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, HFX Wanderers FC sit at 1.14 PPG from 42 outings (12W 12D 18L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-W across their last five.
Cavalry FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of HFX Wanderers FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Cavalry FC's home form reads 13W 4D 5L across their last 22 home games, a 1.95 PPG return.
Away from home, HFX Wanderers FC have taken 0.77 points per game from their last 22 away games (3W 8D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; HFX Wanderers FC are on 1.00 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Blended
HFX Wanderers FC
Blended
Cavalry FC (Home) vs HFX Wanderers FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cavalry FC
Blended
HFX Wanderers FC
Blended
❓ Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC Form FAQs
What form are Cavalry FC and HFX Wanderers FC in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 19W 11D 12L in their last 42 games (1.62 PPG), while HFX Wanderers FC have gone 12W 12D 18L in their last 42 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or HFX Wanderers FC away?
Cavalry FC's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 1.95 PPG; HFX Wanderers FC away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Cavalry FC and HFX Wanderers FC, the earliest from August 2024. All of them came in Canadian Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 12 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won HFX Wanderers FC 0-3 Cavalry FC on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cavalry FC have gone 4W 2D 0L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against HFX Wanderers FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Cavalry FC
4
Draws
0
HFX Wanderers FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and HFX Wanderers FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Cavalry FC have won 6, HFX Wanderers FC have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and HFX Wanderers FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 October 2026: HFX Wanderers FC 2-2 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and HFX Wanderers FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
HFX Wanderers FC see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 54%, HFX Wanderers FC 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cavalry FC) and 41% (HFX Wanderers FC).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; HFX Wanderers FC in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / HFX Wanderers FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cavalry FC and HFX Wanderers FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Cavalry FC's recent matches and 46% of HFX Wanderers FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cavalry FC and HFX Wanderers FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cavalry FC's recent games and 41% of HFX Wanderers FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cavalry FC and HFX Wanderers FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Cavalry FC's recent matches and 59% of HFX Wanderers FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cavalry FC edge out HFX Wanderers FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat HFX Wanderers FC 1-0 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 7, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.53 xG and HFX Wanderers FC 1.06 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. HFX Wanderers FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.07 / defence 0.97 against HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.89 / defence 1.13, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 47% | Draw 29% | HFX Wanderers FC 25%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 50%, HFX Wanderers FC 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (42 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (42 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. HFX Wanderers FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.