Atlético Ottawa 1-1 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atlético Ottawa at 54%, yet in-form Cavalry FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC meet at TD Place Stadium in Canadian Premier League (matchday 2). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 April 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form
Atlético Ottawa (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Atlético Ottawa at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Atlético Ottawa are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Cavalry FC's record over their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cavalry FC's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Cavalry FC arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Atlético Ottawa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atlético Ottawa 48% versus Cavalry FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atlético Ottawa 39% | Cavalry FC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atlético Ottawa 1.66 xG and Cavalry FC 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.985 / defence 1.011 | Cavalry FC attack 1.058 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 0.911. Data: built from Atlético Ottawa's last 29 games and Cavalry FC's last 29. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 54% | Draw 24% | Cavalry FC 22%. Fair-value odds: Atlético Ottawa 1.87 | Draw 4.10 | Cavalry FC 4.52. Atlético Ottawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atlético Ottawa as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cavalry FC (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atlético Ottawa if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Atlético Ottawa 40% (last 10 home games) | Cavalry FC 60% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Atlético Ottawa 29 games, Cavalry FC 29) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, matchday 2 | Venue: TD Place Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 54% | Draw 24% | Cavalry FC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Atlético Ottawa 1.66 / Cavalry FC 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.985 / def 1.011 | Cavalry FC attack 1.058 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.721 / away 0.911 • Poisson stance: Atlético Ottawa (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Atlético Ottawa xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Cavalry FC xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC FAQs
What time does Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC kick off?
Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 20 April 2024 at TD Place Stadium.
What was the final score in Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC?
Atlético Ottawa 1 - 1 Cavalry FC.
Where is Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at TD Place Stadium.
What competition is Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC part of?
Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC is a Canadian Premier League fixture (matchday 2) (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives Atlético Ottawa a 54% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Atlético Ottawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Atlético Ottawa's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Cavalry FC's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. Flip it around — Cavalry FC's attack (1.06x) against Atlético Ottawa's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from Atlético Ottawa's last 29 games and Cavalry FC's last 29, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atlético Ottawa Win
54%
1.87
24%
4.10
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Atlético Ottawa xG
Total xG
2.64
0.97
Cavalry FC xG
1.87
54%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
20%
4.95
4%
23.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 11.6 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Atlético Ottawa and 0.97 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 59 outings, Atlético Ottawa have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 24W 17D 18L record — D-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Cavalry FC's form line: 31W 12D 16L from 59 games, 1.78 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for Atlético Ottawa against 1.78 for Cavalry FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Atlético Ottawa have posted 1.25 PPG from their last 28 home games (8W 11D 9L).
On the road, Cavalry FC have gone 10W 8D 10L from their last 28 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.78 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cavalry FC's recent record.
Attack vs Defence
Atlético Ottawa are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.51 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atlético Ottawa
Current Season
Cavalry FC
Current Season
Atlético Ottawa (Home) vs Cavalry FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Atlético Ottawa
Current Season
Cavalry FC
Current Season
❓ Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC Form FAQs
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
Atlético Ottawa have gone 24W 17D 18L in their last 59 games (1.51 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 31W 12D 16L in their last 59 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atlético Ottawa at home or Cavalry FC away?
Cavalry FC's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atlético Ottawa at home: 1.25 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Atlético Ottawa or Cavalry FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atlético Ottawa have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Cavalry FC in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC, the earliest from September 2024. All of them came in Canadian Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 30 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atlético Ottawa won Atlético Ottawa 3-0 Cavalry FC on 27 Sep 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atlético Ottawa have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cavalry FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Atlético Ottawa
2
Draws
3
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Atlético Ottawa have won 5, Cavalry FC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 September 2026: Atlético Ottawa 3-2 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atlético Ottawa 50%, Cavalry FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Atlético Ottawa) and 54% (Cavalry FC).
On the defensive side: Atlético Ottawa have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atlético Ottawa home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Atlético Ottawa's recent matches and 57% of Cavalry FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Atlético Ottawa's recent games and 54% of Cavalry FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Atlético Ottawa's recent matches and 75% of Cavalry FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at TD Place Stadium, Regular Season - 2, as Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC drew 1-1 in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 1.66 xG and Cavalry FC 0.97 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 0.98 / defence 1.01 against Cavalry FC attack 1.06 / defence 0.98, drawn from 29/29 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 54% | Draw 24% | Cavalry FC 22%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 39%, Cavalry FC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atlético Ottawa 1.51 PPG, Cavalry FC 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.