Vitoria vs Gremio – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Vitoria at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vitoria vs Gremio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vitoria and Gremio meet at Barradao in Serie A, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Monday 7 September 2026 at 23:00 UTC.
Current Form
Vitoria's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Vitoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vitoria's home record at Barradao: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Barradao. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Vitoria are significantly better at Barradao than their overall form suggests.
Gremio (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gremio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gremio's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Gremio hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 5 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2026, ended 0–2 with Gremio winning.
It is worth noting that Gremio have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Vitoria half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Gremio half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitoria 40% versus Gremio 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitoria 39% | Gremio 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitoria 1.24 xG and Gremio 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitoria attack 0.815 / defence 0.927 | Gremio attack 0.682 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.169. Data: 63 Vitoria games / 62 Gremio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitoria 46% | Draw 35% | Gremio 20%. Fair-value odds: Vitoria 2.17 | Draw 2.86 | Gremio 5.00. Vitoria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vitoria at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vitoria if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.98 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Vitoria 10% | Gremio 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitoria vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Barradao • Kick-off: Monday 7 Sep 2026, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitoria 46% | Draw 35% | Gremio 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Vitoria 1.24 / Gremio 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Vitoria attack 0.815 / def 0.927 | Gremio attack 0.682 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Vitoria (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Vitoria xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Gremio xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitoria vs Gremio kick off?
Vitoria vs Gremio is scheduled to kick off at 23:00 on Monday 7 September 2026 at Barradao.
Where is Vitoria vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Barradao.
What competition is Vitoria vs Gremio part of?
Vitoria vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vitoria vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Vitoria a 46% chance of winning, Gremio a 20% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Vitoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitoria vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Vitoria and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will Vitoria vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitoria and Gremio?
Record (5 meetings): Vitoria 0W | Draws 2 | Gremio 3W.
What form are Vitoria and Gremio in?
Vitoria (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Gremio (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Vitoria's attack at 0.81x the league average against Gremio's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gremio's attack (0.68x) against Vitoria's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 63/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitoria Win
46%
2.19
35%
2.88
20%
5.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Vitoria xG
Total xG
1.98
0.74
Gremio xG
2.19
46%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
5.11
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
22%
4.58
6%
17.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 10.2 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 12.7 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitoria vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Vitoria and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Vitoria and 0.74 for Gremio, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitoria vs Gremio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 62 outings, Vitoria have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 19W 17D 26L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Vitoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gremio's form line: 20W 17D 25L from 62 games, 1.24 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-W. The sample for Gremio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Vitoria against 1.24 for Gremio. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Vitoria have posted 1.87 PPG from 31 outings (17W 7D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — Vitoria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Gremio have gone 4W 9D 18L from 31 away games — 0.68 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gremio's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vitoria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vitoria are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 1.19 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitoria
Blended
Gremio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitoria and Gremio in coming into this match?
Vitoria have gone 19W 17D 26L in their last 62 games (1.19 PPG), while Gremio have gone 20W 17D 25L in their last 62 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitoria at home or Gremio away?
Vitoria's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitoria at home: 1.87 PPG; Gremio away: 0.68 PPG.
Have Vitoria or Gremio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vitoria have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Gremio in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since July 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Gremio have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vitoria have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Gremio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Vitoria
2
Draws
3
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitoria and Gremio?
From 5 meetings on record, Vitoria have won 0, Gremio have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vitoria and Gremio last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2026, when Gremio 2-0 Vitoria.
Who has won more matches between Vitoria and Gremio?
Gremio have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vitoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitoria 32%, Gremio 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Vitoria) and 45% (Gremio).
On the defensive side: Vitoria keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Vitoria have failed to score in 26% of games; Gremio in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitoria home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitoria play Gremio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Vitoria's recent matches and 55% of Gremio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vitoria vs Gremio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Vitoria's recent games and 45% of Gremio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vitoria and Gremio tend to score early?
Vitoria have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Gremio in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.