Vitoria 1-0 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cuiaba at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vitoria vs Cuiaba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vitoria host Cuiaba at Estádio Manoel Barradas in Serie A, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 3 August 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Vitoria — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vitoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vitoria's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Estádio Manoel Barradas this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Cuiaba have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cuiaba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cuiaba have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Vitoria 0.90 PPG, Cuiaba 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Vitoria register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Cuiaba in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Vitoria, 0 for Cuiaba and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 6 Jun 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Vitoria in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Cuiaba in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitoria 60% versus Cuiaba 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitoria 55% | Cuiaba 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitoria 1.11 xG and Cuiaba 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitoria attack 0.894 / defence 1.259 | Cuiaba attack 1.217 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.049. Cuiaba have an above-average attack strength of 1.217 — the away xG of 1.61 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 20 Vitoria games / 56 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitoria 26% | Draw 25% | Cuiaba 49%. Fair-value odds: Vitoria 3.85 | Draw 4.00 | Cuiaba 2.04. Cuiaba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cuiaba are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cuiaba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vitoria 60% | Cuiaba 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitoria vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estádio Manoel Barradas • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Aug 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitoria 26% | Draw 25% | Cuiaba 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Vitoria 1.11 / Cuiaba 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Vitoria attack 0.894 / def 1.259 | Cuiaba attack 1.217 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.049 • Poisson stance: Cuiaba (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Vitoria xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Cuiaba xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitoria vs Cuiaba kick off?
Vitoria vs Cuiaba kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 3 August 2024 at Estádio Manoel Barradas.
What was the final score in Vitoria vs Cuiaba?
Vitoria 1 - 0 Cuiaba.
Where is Vitoria vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Manoel Barradas.
What competition is Vitoria vs Cuiaba part of?
Vitoria vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vitoria vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Vitoria a 26% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 49% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cuiaba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitoria vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Vitoria and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Vitoria vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitoria and Cuiaba?
Record (1 meetings): Vitoria 0W | Draws 1 | Cuiaba 0W.
What form are Vitoria and Cuiaba in?
Vitoria (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Cuiaba (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Vitoria's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Cuiaba's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, Cuiaba's attack versus Vitoria's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cuiaba Win
26%
3.82
25%
3.99
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Vitoria xG
Total xG
2.72
1.61
Cuiaba xG
3.82
26%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
20%
4.99
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
5%
19.06
16%
6.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 10.6 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitoria vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Vitoria and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Vitoria and 1.61 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitoria vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 20 outings, Vitoria have picked up 0.90 PPG on a 5W 3D 12L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Vitoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cuiaba's form line: 5W 5D 10L from 20 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Cuiaba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vitoria on 0.90 PPG, Cuiaba on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Vitoria have posted 1.11 PPG from 9 outings (3W 1D 5L).
On the road, Cuiaba have gone 3W 2D 4L from 9 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Vitoria are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 1.15 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vitoria have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 20 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitoria
Blended
Cuiaba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitoria and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
Vitoria have gone 5W 3D 12L in their last 20 games (0.90 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 5W 5D 10L in their last 20 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitoria at home or Cuiaba away?
Cuiaba's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitoria at home: 1.11 PPG; Cuiaba away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vitoria and Cuiaba runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Vitoria
1
Draws
0
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitoria and Cuiaba?
From 2 meetings on record, Vitoria have won 1, Cuiaba have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vitoria and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2024, when Vitoria 1-0 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Vitoria and Cuiaba?
Vitoria have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vitoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Vitoria at 67%, Cuiaba at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Vitoria and 56% for Cuiaba. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vitoria have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitoria home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitoria play Cuiaba?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Vitoria's games and 67% of Cuiaba's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vitoria vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Vitoria's matches and 56% of Cuiaba's.
Do Vitoria and Cuiaba tend to score early?
Vitoria have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Cuiaba in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vitoria defy the odds to beat Cuiaba 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitoria beat Cuiaba 1-0 at Estádio Manoel Barradas, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitoria 1.11 xG and Cuiaba 1.61 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cuiaba landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitoria attack 0.89 / defence 1.26 against Cuiaba attack 1.22 / defence 0.94, drawn from 20/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitoria 26% | Draw 25% | Cuiaba 49%, with Cuiaba to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Vitoria win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitoria 55%, Cuiaba 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitoria's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Cuiaba's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vitoria 0.90 PPG, Cuiaba 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vitoria win broke the near-deadlock. Vitoria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Cuiaba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.