Vitoria 0-1 Botafogo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Botafogo at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vitoria vs Botafogo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Manoel Barradas plays host to Vitoria versus Botafogo in Serie A, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Friday 12 July 2024 at 01:30 UTC.
Form
Vitoria (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vitoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vitoria have posted 3W 1D 4L at Estádio Manoel Barradas — 1.25 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Botafogo's overall Serie A record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Botafogo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Botafogo away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Botafogo are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Vitoria have seen both teams score in 62% of their games, Botafogo in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Vitoria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Botafogo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vitoria 67% and Botafogo 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitoria 60% | Botafogo 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitoria 1.20 xG and Botafogo 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitoria attack 0.973 / defence 1.279 | Botafogo attack 1.157 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.081. Data: 15 Vitoria games / 53 Botafogo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitoria 27% | Draw 29% | Botafogo 45%. Fair-value odds: Vitoria 3.70 | Draw 3.45 | Botafogo 2.22. Botafogo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Botafogo as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Botafogo if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vitoria 62% | Botafogo 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitoria vs Botafogo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estádio Manoel Barradas • Kick-off: Friday 12 Jul 2024, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitoria 27% | Draw 29% | Botafogo 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Vitoria 1.20 / Botafogo 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Vitoria attack 0.973 / def 1.279 | Botafogo attack 1.157 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.081 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Vitoria xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Botafogo xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitoria vs Botafogo kick off?
Vitoria vs Botafogo kicked off at 01:30 on Friday 12 July 2024 at Estádio Manoel Barradas.
What was the final score in Vitoria vs Botafogo?
Vitoria 0 - 1 Botafogo.
Where is Vitoria vs Botafogo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Manoel Barradas.
What competition is Vitoria vs Botafogo part of?
Vitoria vs Botafogo is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vitoria vs Botafogo?
Our statistical model gives Vitoria a 27% chance of winning, Botafogo a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitoria vs Botafogo?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Vitoria and Botafogo will score (BTTS).
Will Vitoria vs Botafogo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitoria and Botafogo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vitoria and Botafogo in?
Vitoria (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Botafogo (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Vitoria's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Botafogo's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Botafogo's attack (1.16x) against Vitoria's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from 15/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
27%
3.75
29%
3.50
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Vitoria xG
Total xG
2.80
1.60
Botafogo xG
3.75
27%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
20%
4.95
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
5%
18.55
14%
7.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.8 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitoria vs Botafogo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Vitoria and Botafogo expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Vitoria and 1.60 for Botafogo, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitoria vs Botafogo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vitoria's recent record stands at 4W 3D 8L from 15 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Vitoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Botafogo, meanwhile, have gone 9W 3D 3L across 15 games — 2.00 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Botafogo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Botafogo by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vitoria heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Vitoria have managed 3W 1D 4L from 8 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Botafogo's away record stands at 4W 2D 2L across 8 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Botafogo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Vitoria are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Botafogo are on 1.73 scored and 0.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vitoria have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Botafogo in 67%.
Last 15 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitoria
Blended
Botafogo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitoria and Botafogo in coming into this match?
Vitoria have gone 4W 3D 8L in their last 15 games (1.00 PPG), while Botafogo have gone 9W 3D 3L in their last 15 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitoria at home or Botafogo away?
Botafogo's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitoria at home: 1.25 PPG; Botafogo away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Vitoria or Botafogo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vitoria have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Botafogo in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 23 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vitoria have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Botafogo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Vitoria
4
Draws
1
Botafogo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitoria and Botafogo?
From 5 meetings on record, Vitoria have won 0, Botafogo have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Vitoria and Botafogo last play each other?
They last met on 23 July 2026, when Botafogo 0-0 Vitoria.
Who has won more matches between Vitoria and Botafogo?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vitoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Vitoria, 75% for Botafogo — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Vitoria) and 50% (Botafogo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vitoria have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitoria home games / Botafogo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitoria play Botafogo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Vitoria's games and 75% of Botafogo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vitoria vs Botafogo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Vitoria's matches and 50% of Botafogo's.
Do Vitoria and Botafogo tend to score early?
Vitoria have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Botafogo in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Botafogo edge out Vitoria 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat Vitoria 0-1 at Estádio Manoel Barradas, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitoria 1.20 xG and Botafogo 1.60 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Vitoria fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitoria attack 0.97 / defence 1.28 against Botafogo attack 1.16 / defence 0.88, drawn from 15/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitoria 27% | Draw 29% | Botafogo 45%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitoria 60%, Botafogo 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitoria's trading profile (15 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Botafogo's trading profile (15 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Botafogo arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Vitoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Botafogo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.