Sao Paulo 2-1 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sao Paulo at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 6 as Sao Paulo welcome Cuiaba to Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 May 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sao Paulo stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Sao Paulo's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Cuiaba have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Cuiaba's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sao Paulo 1.40 PPG, Cuiaba 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Sao Paulo, 0 for Cuiaba and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Oct 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sao Paulo trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Cuiaba trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sao Paulo 40% versus Cuiaba 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sao Paulo 26% | Cuiaba 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sao Paulo 1.65 xG and Cuiaba 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sao Paulo attack 1.235 / defence 0.926 | Cuiaba attack 1.004 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 0.931. Data: 43 Sao Paulo games / 43 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sao Paulo 56% | Draw 24% | Cuiaba 20%. Fair-value odds: Sao Paulo 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Cuiaba 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Sao Paulo (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sao Paulo as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sao Paulo 30% | Cuiaba 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo • Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sao Paulo 56% | Draw 24% | Cuiaba 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 47% | xG Sao Paulo 1.65 / Cuiaba 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Sao Paulo attack 1.235 / def 0.926 | Cuiaba attack 1.004 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.371 / away 0.931 • Poisson stance: Sao Paulo (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Sao Paulo xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Cuiaba xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba kick off?
Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 15 May 2022 at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo.
What was the final score in Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba?
Sao Paulo 2 - 1 Cuiaba.
Where is Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo.
What competition is Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba part of?
Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Sao Paulo a 56% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sao Paulo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Sao Paulo and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Cuiaba?
Record (2 meetings): Sao Paulo 0W | Draws 2 | Cuiaba 0W.
What form are Sao Paulo and Cuiaba in?
Sao Paulo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Cuiaba (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sao Paulo's attack rating (1.24) and Cuiaba's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cuiaba's attack versus Sao Paulo's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sao Paulo Win
56%
1.79
24%
4.08
20%
5.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Sao Paulo xG
Total xG
2.51
0.86
Cuiaba xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
5.09
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
19%
5.19
Win to Nil
24%
4.25
4%
26.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 11.6 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Sao Paulo and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Sao Paulo and 0.86 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sao Paulo's recent record stands at 11W 15D 12L from 38 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Cuiaba, meanwhile, have gone 10W 17D 11L across 38 games — 1.24 PPG, with D-L-L-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sao Paulo on 1.26 PPG, Cuiaba on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sao Paulo have managed 7W 9D 3L from 19 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cuiaba's away record stands at 3W 11D 5L across 19 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sao Paulo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sao Paulo are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 0.89 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Sao Paulo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Cuiaba in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sao Paulo
Current Season
Cuiaba
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sao Paulo and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
Sao Paulo have gone 11W 15D 12L in their last 38 games (1.26 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 10W 17D 11L in their last 38 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sao Paulo at home or Cuiaba away?
Sao Paulo's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sao Paulo at home: 1.58 PPG; Cuiaba away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Sao Paulo or Cuiaba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sao Paulo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Cuiaba in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 October 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Cuiaba have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Sao Paulo's record when hosting Cuiaba specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Sao Paulo
4
Draws
3
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Cuiaba?
From 8 meetings on record, Sao Paulo have won 1, Cuiaba have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sao Paulo and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2024, when Cuiaba 2-0 Sao Paulo.
Who has won more matches between Sao Paulo and Cuiaba?
Cuiaba have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sao Paulo see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Cuiaba see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sao Paulo 42%, Cuiaba 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 32% for Sao Paulo and 32% for Cuiaba.
On the defensive side: Sao Paulo keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Cuiaba in 42%; Sao Paulo have failed to score in 37% of games; Cuiaba in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sao Paulo home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sao Paulo play Cuiaba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Sao Paulo's recent matches and 42% of Cuiaba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Sao Paulo's recent games and 32% of Cuiaba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Sao Paulo edge out Cuiaba 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sao Paulo beat Cuiaba 2-1 at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sao Paulo 1.65 xG and Cuiaba 0.86 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sao Paulo attack 1.24 / defence 0.93 against Cuiaba attack 1.00 / defence 0.97, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sao Paulo 56% | Draw 24% | Cuiaba 20%, with Sao Paulo to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sao Paulo 26%, Cuiaba 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sao Paulo's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Cuiaba's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sao Paulo 1.26 PPG, Cuiaba 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sao Paulo win broke the near-deadlock. Sao Paulo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm. Cuiaba (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.