Sao Paulo 1-1 Ceara – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sao Paulo at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sao Paulo vs Ceara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 26 as Sao Paulo welcome Ceara to Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo. Kick-off is set for Thursday 14 October 2021 at 23:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sao Paulo stand at 3W 6D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sao Paulo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sao Paulo have posted 3W 5D 2L at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie A games this season, Ceara have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Ceara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ceara's form when playing away from home: 0W 6D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Sao Paulo carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sao Paulo, 0 for Ceara and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jun 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sao Paulo in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Ceara in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sao Paulo 52% versus Ceara 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sao Paulo 30% | Ceara 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sao Paulo 1.05 xG and Ceara 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sao Paulo attack 0.783 / defence 0.942 | Ceara attack 0.643 / defence 1.457. League average goals — home 0.917 / away 1.053. Sao Paulo's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Ceara bring a strong defensive rating of 1.457 — this is suppressing Sao Paulo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Sao Paulo games / 23 Ceara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sao Paulo 43% | Draw 37% | Ceara 20%. Fair-value odds: Sao Paulo 2.33 | Draw 2.70 | Ceara 5.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.68. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.68 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Ceara's lower xG of 0.64 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sao Paulo as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sao Paulo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.68 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 24% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sao Paulo 50% | Ceara 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sao Paulo vs Ceara | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo • Kick-off: Thursday 14 Oct 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sao Paulo 43% | Draw 37% | Ceara 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 33% | xG Sao Paulo 1.05 / Ceara 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Sao Paulo attack 0.783 / def 0.942 | Ceara attack 0.643 / def 1.457 | league avg home 0.917 / away 1.053 • Poisson stance: Sao Paulo (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Sao Paulo xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Ceara xG
33%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sao Paulo vs Ceara kick off?
Sao Paulo vs Ceara kicked off at 23:00 on Thursday 14 October 2021 at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo.
What was the final score in Sao Paulo vs Ceara?
Sao Paulo 1 - 1 Ceara.
Where is Sao Paulo vs Ceara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo.
What competition is Sao Paulo vs Ceara part of?
Sao Paulo vs Ceara is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sao Paulo vs Ceara?
Our statistical model gives Sao Paulo a 43% chance of winning, Ceara a 20% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Sao Paulo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Ceara?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Sao Paulo and Ceara will score (BTTS).
Will Sao Paulo vs Ceara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Ceara?
Record (1 meetings): Sao Paulo 0W | Draws 1 | Ceara 0W.
What form are Sao Paulo and Ceara in?
Sao Paulo (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-D-D-D. Ceara (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sao Paulo's attack at 0.78x the league average against Ceara's defence at 1.46x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ceara's attack versus Sao Paulo's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (17.8%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sao Paulo Win
43%
2.34
37%
2.69
20%
4.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
18.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Sao Paulo xG
Total xG
1.68
0.64
Ceara xG
2.34
43%
Home win
2.69
37%
Draw
4.98
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.07
67%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
23%
4.43
7%
14.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.6 | 11.8 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.4 | 12.4 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sao Paulo vs Ceara?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.2%.
How many goals are Sao Paulo and Ceara expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Sao Paulo and 0.64 for Ceara, a combined total of 1.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Sao Paulo vs Ceara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sao Paulo's recent record stands at 6W 11D 6L from 23 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Sao Paulo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ceara, meanwhile, have gone 6W 11D 6L across 23 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-D-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Ceara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sao Paulo on 1.26 PPG, Ceara on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sao Paulo have managed 3W 6D 2L from 11 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ceara's away record stands at 0W 6D 5L across 11 trips, a 0.55 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.26 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ceara's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sao Paulo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sao Paulo are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Ceara are on 0.91 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Ceara in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sao Paulo
Blended
Ceara
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sao Paulo and Ceara in coming into this match?
Sao Paulo have gone 6W 11D 6L in their last 23 games (1.26 PPG), while Ceara have gone 6W 11D 6L in their last 23 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sao Paulo at home or Ceara away?
Sao Paulo's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sao Paulo at home: 1.36 PPG; Ceara away: 0.55 PPG.
Have Sao Paulo or Ceara been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sao Paulo have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Ceara in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 30 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sao Paulo's record when hosting Ceara specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Sao Paulo
4
Draws
1
Ceara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Ceara?
From 6 meetings on record, Sao Paulo have won 1, Ceara have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sao Paulo and Ceara last play each other?
They last met on 30 September 2025, when Sao Paulo 0-1 Ceara.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sao Paulo see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ceara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sao Paulo 54%, Ceara 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Sao Paulo) and 36% (Ceara).
On the defensive side: Sao Paulo keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Ceara in 36%; Sao Paulo have failed to score in 36% of games; Ceara in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sao Paulo home games / Ceara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sao Paulo play Ceara?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Sao Paulo's recent matches and 46% of Ceara's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sao Paulo vs Ceara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Sao Paulo's recent games and 36% of Ceara's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sao Paulo and Ceara tend to score early?
Sao Paulo have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Ceara in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sao Paulo and Ceara share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo, Regular Season - 26, as Sao Paulo and Ceara drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sao Paulo 1.05 xG and Ceara 0.64 xG, a combined 1.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sao Paulo attack 0.78 / defence 0.94 against Ceara attack 0.64 / defence 1.46, drawn from 25/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sao Paulo 43% | Draw 37% | Ceara 20%, with Sao Paulo to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sao Paulo 30%, Ceara 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sao Paulo's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Ceara's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sao Paulo 1.26 PPG, Ceara 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.