Sao Paulo 1-0 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bahia at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sao Paulo vs Bahia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo plays host to Sao Paulo versus Bahia in Serie A, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Saturday 10 July 2021 at 23:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sao Paulo's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sao Paulo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sao Paulo's form when playing at home: 0W 3D 1L across 4 games at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo this term (0.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bahia have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bahia's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 1L across 4 road games this term (1.75 PPG). They are averaging 2.25 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Bahia arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Sao Paulo register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant games, Bahia in 75%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
Sao Paulo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Bahia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sao Paulo 40% versus Bahia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sao Paulo 20% | Bahia 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sao Paulo 1.17 xG and Bahia 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sao Paulo attack 0.950 / defence 1.214 | Bahia attack 1.228 / defence 1.348. League average goals — home 0.917 / away 1.046. Bahia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.348 — this is suppressing Sao Paulo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Bahia have an above-average attack strength of 1.228 — the away xG of 1.56 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 10 Sao Paulo games / 10 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sao Paulo 28% | Draw 27% | Bahia 45%. Fair-value odds: Sao Paulo 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | Bahia 2.22. Bahia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bahia at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bahia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sao Paulo 75% | Bahia 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sao Paulo vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Jul 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sao Paulo 28% | Draw 27% | Bahia 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Sao Paulo 1.17 / Bahia 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Sao Paulo attack 0.950 / def 1.214 | Bahia attack 1.228 / def 1.348 | league avg home 0.917 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: Bahia (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Sao Paulo xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Bahia xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sao Paulo vs Bahia kick off?
Sao Paulo vs Bahia kicked off at 23:00 on Saturday 10 July 2021 at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo.
What was the final score in Sao Paulo vs Bahia?
Sao Paulo 1 - 0 Bahia.
Where is Sao Paulo vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo.
What competition is Sao Paulo vs Bahia part of?
Sao Paulo vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sao Paulo vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Sao Paulo a 28% chance of winning, Bahia a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sao Paulo and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Sao Paulo vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Bahia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sao Paulo and Bahia in?
Sao Paulo (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. Bahia (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sao Paulo's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Bahia's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — Bahia's attack (1.23x) against Sao Paulo's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
28%
3.59
27%
3.74
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Sao Paulo xG
Total xG
2.73
1.56
Bahia xG
3.59
28%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
21%
4.76
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
6%
17.09
14%
7.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 10.1 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.9 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sao Paulo vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Sao Paulo and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Sao Paulo and 1.56 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Sao Paulo vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 10 outings, Sao Paulo have picked up 0.80 PPG on a 1W 5D 4L record — D-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sao Paulo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bahia's form line: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games, 1.70 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-W. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bahia are the form team by 0.90 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sao Paulo.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sao Paulo have posted 0.75 PPG from 4 outings (0W 3D 1L).
On the road, Bahia have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bahia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sao Paulo are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.80 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: Bahia in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sao Paulo
Blended
Bahia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sao Paulo and Bahia in coming into this match?
Sao Paulo have gone 1W 5D 4L in their last 10 games (0.80 PPG), while Bahia have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sao Paulo at home or Bahia away?
Bahia's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sao Paulo at home: 0.75 PPG; Bahia away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Sao Paulo or Bahia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sao Paulo have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Bahia in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sao Paulo won 0-3 on 6 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sao Paulo have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bahia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Sao Paulo
2
Draws
2
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Bahia?
From 9 meetings on record, Sao Paulo have won 5, Bahia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sao Paulo and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Sao Paulo 2-2 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Sao Paulo and Bahia?
Sao Paulo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sao Paulo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Sao Paulo, 75% for Bahia — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Sao Paulo and 75% for Bahia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sao Paulo home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sao Paulo play Bahia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Sao Paulo's games and 75% of Bahia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sao Paulo vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Sao Paulo's matches and 75% of Bahia's.
Do Sao Paulo and Bahia tend to score early?
Sao Paulo have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Bahia in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sao Paulo defy the odds to beat Bahia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sao Paulo beat Bahia 1-0 at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sao Paulo 1.17 xG and Bahia 1.56 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bahia landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sao Paulo attack 0.95 / defence 1.21 against Bahia attack 1.23 / defence 1.35, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sao Paulo 28% | Draw 27% | Bahia 45%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Sao Paulo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sao Paulo 20%, Bahia 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sao Paulo's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bahia's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bahia arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.80. Form was overturned, with Sao Paulo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sao Paulo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Bahia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.