RB Bragantino 2-1 Vasco DA Gama – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RB Bragantino at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this RB Bragantino vs Vasco DA Gama fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
RB Bragantino host Vasco DA Gama at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid in Serie A, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 17 April 2024 at 23:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, RB Bragantino have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
RB Bragantino's home record at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — RB Bragantino are significantly better at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid than their overall form suggests.
Vasco DA Gama — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Vasco DA Gama have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Vasco DA Gama — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, RB Bragantino have won 0, Vasco DA Gama 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2023, ended 1–2 with Vasco DA Gama winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
RB Bragantino trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Vasco DA Gama trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Bragantino 40% versus Vasco DA Gama 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (RB Bragantino 37% | Vasco DA Gama 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.33 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 1.007 / defence 0.938 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.947 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 1.117. Data: 39 RB Bragantino games / 39 Vasco DA Gama games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 44% | Draw 28% | Vasco DA Gama 28%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Vasco DA Gama 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates RB Bragantino as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vasco DA Gama (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: RB Bragantino 50% | Vasco DA Gama 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Vasco DA Gama | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid • Kick-off: Wednesday 17 Apr 2024, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 44% | Draw 28% | Vasco DA Gama 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG RB Bragantino 1.33 / Vasco DA Gama 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 1.007 / def 0.938 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.947 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.373 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Vasco DA Gama xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Vasco DA Gama kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Vasco DA Gama kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 17 April 2024 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Vasco DA Gama?
RB Bragantino 2 - 1 Vasco DA Gama.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Vasco DA Gama being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Vasco DA Gama part of?
RB Bragantino vs Vasco DA Gama is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 44% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both RB Bragantino and Vasco DA Gama will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Vasco DA Gama have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Vasco DA Gama?
Record (2 meetings): RB Bragantino 0W | Draws 1 | Vasco DA Gama 1W.
What form are RB Bragantino and Vasco DA Gama in?
RB Bragantino (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
RB Bragantino's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Vasco DA Gama's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Vasco DA Gama's attack versus RB Bragantino's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
44%
2.27
28%
3.56
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
2.32
0.99
Vasco DA Gama xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
16%
6.11
7%
13.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.9 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Vasco DA Gama expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 0.99 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Vasco DA Gama?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
RB Bragantino's recent record stands at 17W 11D 10L from 38 games, a 1.63 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Vasco DA Gama, meanwhile, have gone 12W 9D 17L across 38 games — 1.18 PPG, with D-D-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours RB Bragantino by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vasco DA Gama heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, RB Bragantino have managed 11W 5D 3L from 19 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vasco DA Gama's away record stands at 3W 7D 9L across 19 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Bragantino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
RB Bragantino are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Vasco DA Gama are on 1.08 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Defensively: RB Bragantino have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Current Season
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Bragantino and Vasco DA Gama in coming into this match?
RB Bragantino have gone 17W 11D 10L in their last 38 games (1.63 PPG), while Vasco DA Gama have gone 12W 9D 17L in their last 38 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Bragantino at home or Vasco DA Gama away?
RB Bragantino's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Bragantino at home: 2.00 PPG; Vasco DA Gama away: 0.84 PPG.
Have RB Bragantino or Vasco DA Gama been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Bragantino have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Vasco DA Gama in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2025, when Vasco DA Gama won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
RB Bragantino's record when hosting Vasco DA Gama specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
RB Bragantino
2
Draws
2
Vasco DA Gama
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Vasco DA Gama?
From 7 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 3, Vasco DA Gama have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Vasco DA Gama last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Vasco DA Gama 0-3 RB Bragantino.
Who has won more matches between RB Bragantino and Vasco DA Gama?
RB Bragantino have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Vasco DA Gama see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Bragantino 37%, Vasco DA Gama 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (RB Bragantino) and 32% (Vasco DA Gama).
On the defensive side: RB Bragantino keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Vasco DA Gama in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Vasco DA Gama away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Bragantino play Vasco DA Gama?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of RB Bragantino's recent matches and 58% of Vasco DA Gama's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RB Bragantino vs Vasco DA Gama usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of RB Bragantino's recent games and 32% of Vasco DA Gama's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RB Bragantino and Vasco DA Gama tend to score early?
RB Bragantino have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Vasco DA Gama in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as RB Bragantino edge out Vasco DA Gama 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Bragantino beat Vasco DA Gama 2-1 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.33 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.99 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 1.01 / defence 0.94 against Vasco DA Gama attack 0.95 / defence 0.96, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 44% | Draw 28% | Vasco DA Gama 28%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 37%, Vasco DA Gama 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Bragantino's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Bragantino arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.18. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.