RB Bragantino 2-0 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RB Bragantino at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 21 as RB Bragantino welcome Cuiaba to Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid. Kick-off is set for Sunday 27 August 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, RB Bragantino have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for RB Bragantino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, RB Bragantino have posted 5W 4D 1L at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cuiaba — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Cuiaba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cuiaba have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: RB Bragantino 1.80 PPG, Cuiaba 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for RB Bragantino, 1 for Cuiaba and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
RB Bragantino in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Cuiaba in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Bragantino 52% versus Cuiaba 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Bragantino 48% | Cuiaba 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.14 xG and Cuiaba 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 0.964 / defence 0.836 | Cuiaba attack 0.933 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 0.954. Data: 58 RB Bragantino games / 58 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 44% | Draw 34% | Cuiaba 23%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 2.27 | Draw 2.94 | Cuiaba 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates RB Bragantino as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.88 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: RB Bragantino 30% | Cuiaba 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Aug 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 44% | Draw 34% | Cuiaba 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG RB Bragantino 1.14 / Cuiaba 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 0.964 / def 0.836 | Cuiaba attack 0.933 / def 0.884 | league avg home 1.334 / away 0.954 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Cuiaba xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 27 August 2023 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba?
RB Bragantino 2 - 0 Cuiaba.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba part of?
RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 44% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 23% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both RB Bragantino and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Cuiaba?
Record (5 meetings): RB Bragantino 1W | Draws 3 | Cuiaba 1W.
What form are RB Bragantino and Cuiaba in?
RB Bragantino (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Cuiaba (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
RB Bragantino's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Cuiaba's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, Cuiaba's attack versus RB Bragantino's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.7%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
44%
2.30
34%
2.95
23%
4.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
1.88
0.74
Cuiaba xG
2.30
44%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
4.42
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
7%
13.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 11.3 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 12.9 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.9 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 0.74 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
RB Bragantino's recent record stands at 19W 19D 20L from 58 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for RB Bragantino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cuiaba, meanwhile, have gone 18W 15D 25L across 58 games — 1.19 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Cuiaba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: RB Bragantino on 1.31 PPG, Cuiaba on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, RB Bragantino have managed 13W 9D 7L from 29 games — 1.66 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cuiaba's away record stands at 9W 4D 16L across 29 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Bragantino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
RB Bragantino are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 0.90 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Blended
Cuiaba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Bragantino and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
RB Bragantino have gone 19W 19D 20L in their last 58 games (1.31 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 18W 15D 25L in their last 58 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Bragantino at home or Cuiaba away?
RB Bragantino's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Bragantino at home: 1.66 PPG; Cuiaba away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
RB Bragantino's record when hosting Cuiaba specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
RB Bragantino
5
Draws
1
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Cuiaba?
From 8 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 2, Cuiaba have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2024, when RB Bragantino 0-0 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between RB Bragantino and Cuiaba?
RB Bragantino have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Bragantino 45%, Cuiaba 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (RB Bragantino) and 34% (Cuiaba).
On the defensive side: RB Bragantino keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; RB Bragantino have failed to score in 28% of games; Cuiaba in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Bragantino play Cuiaba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of RB Bragantino's recent matches and 41% of Cuiaba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RB Bragantino vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of RB Bragantino's recent games and 34% of Cuiaba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RB Bragantino and Cuiaba tend to score early?
RB Bragantino have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Cuiaba in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
RB Bragantino cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cuiaba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Bragantino beat Cuiaba 2-0 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.14 xG and Cuiaba 0.74 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. RB Bragantino beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 0.96 / defence 0.84 against Cuiaba attack 0.93 / defence 0.88, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 44% | Draw 34% | Cuiaba 23%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 48%, Cuiaba 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Bragantino's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Cuiaba's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RB Bragantino 1.31 PPG, Cuiaba 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RB Bragantino win broke the near-deadlock. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.