RB Bragantino 0-1 Botafogo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Botafogo (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as RB Bragantino face Botafogo.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid plays host to RB Bragantino versus Botafogo in Serie A, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Sunday 27 October 2024 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
RB Bragantino's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, RB Bragantino have posted 5W 3D 2L at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — RB Bragantino are significantly better at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid than their overall form suggests.
Botafogo (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Botafogo have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Botafogo are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — RB Bragantino have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Botafogo in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across the last 5 meetings, Botafogo have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to RB Bragantino's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jun 2024, ended 1–2 with Botafogo winning.
It is worth noting that Botafogo have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
RB Bragantino — key trading statistics (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Botafogo — key trading statistics (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Bragantino 52% versus Botafogo 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Bragantino 44% | Botafogo 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.09 xG and Botafogo 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 0.983 / defence 1.049 | Botafogo attack 1.221 / defence 0.791. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 0.995. Botafogo's defence strength of 0.791 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Botafogo have an above-average attack strength of 1.221 — the away xG of 1.27 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 68 RB Bragantino games / 68 Botafogo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 31% | Draw 28% | Botafogo 40%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Botafogo 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Botafogo at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Botafogo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: RB Bragantino 70% | Botafogo 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Botafogo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 31% | Draw 28% | Botafogo 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG RB Bragantino 1.09 / Botafogo 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 0.983 / def 1.049 | Botafogo attack 1.221 / def 0.791 | league avg home 1.397 / away 0.995 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Botafogo xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Botafogo kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Botafogo kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Botafogo?
RB Bragantino 0 - 1 Botafogo.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Botafogo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Botafogo part of?
RB Bragantino vs Botafogo is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Botafogo?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 31% chance of winning, Botafogo a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Botafogo?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both RB Bragantino and Botafogo will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Botafogo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Botafogo?
Record (5 meetings): RB Bragantino 0W | Draws 1 | Botafogo 4W.
What form are RB Bragantino and Botafogo in?
RB Bragantino (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Botafogo (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about RB Bragantino vs Botafogo?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
RB Bragantino's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Botafogo's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. Flip it around — Botafogo's attack (1.22x) against RB Bragantino's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
31%
3.21
28%
3.52
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
2.36
1.27
Botafogo xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
9%
11.46
14%
7.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 12.0 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Botafogo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Botafogo expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 1.27 for Botafogo, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Botafogo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
RB Bragantino come into this having played 68 games, going 25W 21D 22L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-L.
On the other side, Botafogo sit at 1.84 PPG from 68 outings (36W 17D 15L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-D across their last five.
Botafogo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of RB Bragantino — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
RB Bragantino's home form reads 18W 9D 6L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.91 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.41 PPG overall — RB Bragantino are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Botafogo have taken 1.58 points per game from 33 outings (14W 10D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
RB Bragantino are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Botafogo are on 1.56 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Botafogo in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Current Season
Botafogo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Bragantino and Botafogo in coming into this match?
RB Bragantino have gone 25W 21D 22L in their last 68 games (1.41 PPG), while Botafogo have gone 36W 17D 15L in their last 68 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Bragantino at home or Botafogo away?
RB Bragantino's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Bragantino at home: 1.91 PPG; Botafogo away: 1.58 PPG.
Have RB Bragantino or Botafogo been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Bragantino have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Botafogo in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Botafogo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Botafogo won 4-1 on 30 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RB Bragantino have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Botafogo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
RB Bragantino
1
Draws
7
Botafogo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Botafogo?
From 9 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 1, Botafogo have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Botafogo last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when RB Bragantino 1-2 Botafogo.
Who has won more matches between RB Bragantino and Botafogo?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Bragantino 52%, Botafogo 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (RB Bragantino) and 42% (Botafogo).
On the defensive side: RB Bragantino keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Botafogo in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Botafogo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Bragantino play Botafogo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of RB Bragantino's recent matches and 52% of Botafogo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RB Bragantino vs Botafogo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of RB Bragantino's recent games and 42% of Botafogo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RB Bragantino and Botafogo tend to score early?
RB Bragantino have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Botafogo in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Botafogo edge out RB Bragantino 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat RB Bragantino 0-1 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.09 xG and Botafogo 1.27 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. RB Bragantino fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 0.98 / defence 1.05 against Botafogo attack 1.22 / defence 0.79, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 31% | Draw 28% | Botafogo 40%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 44%, Botafogo 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Bragantino's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Botafogo's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Botafogo arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.41. That form edge translated into the three points. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward. Botafogo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.