Palmeiras 2-1 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RB Bragantino at 34%, yet in-form Palmeiras provide a compelling counter-argument — this Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Palmeiras host RB Bragantino at Allianz Parque in Serie A, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 21 June 2024 at 01:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palmeiras stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Palmeiras's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 games at Allianz Parque this term (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Parque. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
RB Bragantino — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Serie A this season, RB Bragantino have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Palmeiras have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Palmeiras's 10% rate and RB Bragantino's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Palmeiras have won 1, RB Bragantino 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2023, ended 1–2 with RB Bragantino winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Palmeiras in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
RB Bragantino in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 45% versus RB Bragantino 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 49% | RB Bragantino 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 0.99 xG and RB Bragantino 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 0.890 / defence 0.841 | RB Bragantino attack 1.054 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.264 / away 1.127. Data: 47 Palmeiras games / 47 RB Bragantino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 33% | Draw 33% | RB Bragantino 34%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 3.03 | Draw 3.03 | RB Bragantino 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, RB Bragantino are the pick at 34% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Palmeiras (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.99 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Palmeiras 10% | RB Bragantino 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Friday 21 Jun 2024, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 33% | Draw 33% | RB Bragantino 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG Palmeiras 0.99 / RB Bragantino 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 0.890 / def 0.841 | RB Bragantino attack 1.054 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.264 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
1.00
RB Bragantino xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 01:30 on Friday 21 June 2024 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino?
Palmeiras 2 - 1 RB Bragantino.
Where is Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino part of?
Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 33% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 34% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Palmeiras and RB Bragantino will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and RB Bragantino?
Record (5 meetings): Palmeiras 1W | Draws 2 | RB Bragantino 2W.
What form are Palmeiras and RB Bragantino in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. RB Bragantino (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Palmeiras's attack at 0.89x the league average against RB Bragantino's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, RB Bragantino's attack versus Palmeiras's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
33%
2.99
33%
3.05
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
1.99
1.00
RB Bragantino xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
12%
8.12
13%
8.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 13.6 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Palmeiras and 1.00 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Palmeiras come into this having played 76 games, going 43W 22D 11L for 1.99 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-D.
On the other side, RB Bragantino sit at 1.39 PPG from 76 outings (28W 22D 26L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five.
Palmeiras carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of RB Bragantino — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Palmeiras's home form reads 27W 6D 5L across 38 games on their own ground, a 2.29 PPG return.
Away from home, RB Bragantino have taken 1.03 points per game from 38 outings (9W 12D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Palmeiras are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 1.29 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Current Season
RB Bragantino
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 43W 22D 11L in their last 76 games (1.99 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 28W 22D 26L in their last 76 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or RB Bragantino away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.29 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or RB Bragantino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, RB Bragantino in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Palmeiras and RB Bragantino runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Palmeiras go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Oct 2025, when Palmeiras won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Palmeiras's record when hosting RB Bragantino specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Palmeiras
3
Draws
2
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and RB Bragantino?
From 10 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 5, RB Bragantino have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and RB Bragantino last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when RB Bragantino 0-1 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and RB Bragantino?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 40%, RB Bragantino 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Palmeiras) and 47% (RB Bragantino).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; RB Bragantino in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play RB Bragantino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 53% of RB Bragantino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Palmeiras's recent games and 47% of RB Bragantino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and RB Bragantino tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, RB Bragantino in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Palmeiras defy the odds to beat RB Bragantino 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat RB Bragantino 2-1 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 0.99 xG and RB Bragantino 1.00 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Palmeiras beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 0.89 / defence 0.84 against RB Bragantino attack 1.05 / defence 0.88, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 33% | Draw 33% | RB Bragantino 34%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Palmeiras win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 49%, RB Bragantino 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.99 PPG against 1.39. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.