Palmeiras 0-0 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 70%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palmeiras vs Fluminense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Fluminense travel to Allianz Parque to take on Palmeiras. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 November 2025, 00:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palmeiras stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Palmeiras's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Allianz Parque this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Parque. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Palmeiras are significantly better at Allianz Parque than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Fluminense have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Fluminense's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Palmeiras 1.70 PPG, Fluminense 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Palmeiras have won 2, Fluminense 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jul 2025, ended 2–1 with Palmeiras winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Palmeiras trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Fluminense trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 43% versus Fluminense 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Palmeiras 46% | Fluminense 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 2.00 xG and Fluminense 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.306 / defence 0.708 | Fluminense attack 0.838 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.030. Palmeiras carry an above-average attack strength of 1.306 — their λ of 2.00 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Palmeiras's defence rating of 0.708 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 72 Palmeiras games / 72 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 70% | Draw 19% | Fluminense 10%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 1.43 | Draw 5.26 | Fluminense 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Palmeiras (70%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: Palmeiras 50% | Fluminense 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Nov 2025, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 70% | Draw 19% | Fluminense 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 40% | xG Palmeiras 2.00 / Fluminense 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.306 / def 0.708 | Fluminense attack 0.838 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.030 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Fluminense xG
40%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Fluminense kick off?
Palmeiras vs Fluminense kicked off at 00:30 on Sunday 23 November 2025 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
Palmeiras 0 - 0 Fluminense.
Where is Palmeiras vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Fluminense part of?
Palmeiras vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 70% chance of winning, Fluminense a 10% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Palmeiras and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Fluminense?
Record (7 meetings): Palmeiras 2W | Draws 2 | Fluminense 3W.
What form are Palmeiras and Fluminense in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Fluminense (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Palmeiras's attack at 1.31x the league average against Fluminense's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fluminense's attack versus Palmeiras's defence, projects 0.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.5%), 1-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
70%
1.42
19%
5.15
10%
9.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.7%
Home win
3 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.61
0.61
Fluminense xG
1.42
70%
Home win
5.15
19%
Draw
9.73
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
54%
1.84
13%
7.41
Win to Nil
38%
2.62
1%
72.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 9.0 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.7 | 9.0 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.61 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 72 outings, Palmeiras have picked up 1.97 PPG on a 43W 13D 16L record — W-W-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Fluminense's form line: 28W 16D 28L from 72 games, 1.39 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Palmeiras are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fluminense.
Venue Form
On home soil, Palmeiras have posted 2.17 PPG from 36 outings (24W 6D 6L).
On the road, Fluminense have gone 8W 7D 21L from 36 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fluminense's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Palmeiras are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.01 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Fluminense in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Current Season
Fluminense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 43W 13D 16L in their last 72 games (1.97 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 28W 16D 28L in their last 72 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Fluminense away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.17 PPG; Fluminense away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Fluminense in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Palmeiras's record when hosting Fluminense specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Palmeiras
3
Draws
4
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Fluminense?
From 10 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 3, Fluminense have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Fluminense 3-2 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Fluminense?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palmeiras see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 39%, Fluminense 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Palmeiras) and 31% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Fluminense in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 36% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palmeiras vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Palmeiras's recent games and 31% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Palmeiras's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras and Fluminense finished level at 0-0 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 2.00 xG and Fluminense 0.61 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Palmeiras fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.31 / defence 0.71 against Fluminense attack 0.84 / defence 1.07, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 70% | Draw 19% | Fluminense 10%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 46%, Fluminense 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fluminense's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.39. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward. Fluminense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.