Mirassol 1-1 Vitoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mirassol at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mirassol vs Vitoria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Vitoria make the trip to Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia to face Mirassol in Serie A, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Saturday 26 July 2025 at 22:30 UTC.
Form
Mirassol (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Mirassol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mirassol have posted 4W 2D 0L at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia — 2.33 PPG. They are averaging 2.17 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Vitoria's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Vitoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vitoria away from home this season: 0W 6D 4L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Mirassol's favour (1.90 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Mirassol goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Vitoria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mirassol 64% versus Vitoria 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mirassol 43% | Vitoria 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 1.25 xG and Vitoria 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 1.159 / defence 1.031 | Vitoria attack 0.772 / defence 0.866. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 0.924. Data: 14 Mirassol games / 54 Vitoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mirassol 49% | Draw 30% | Vitoria 22%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 2.04 | Draw 3.33 | Vitoria 4.55. Mirassol hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mirassol as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mirassol if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates are neutral: Mirassol 67% | Vitoria 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mirassol vs Vitoria | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Jul 2025, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mirassol 49% | Draw 30% | Vitoria 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 37% | xG Mirassol 1.25 / Vitoria 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Mirassol attack 1.159 / def 1.031 | Vitoria attack 0.772 / def 0.866 | league avg home 1.248 / away 0.924 • Poisson stance: Mirassol (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Mirassol xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Vitoria xG
37%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mirassol vs Vitoria kick off?
Mirassol vs Vitoria kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 26 July 2025 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What was the final score in Mirassol vs Vitoria?
Mirassol 1 - 1 Vitoria.
Where is Mirassol vs Vitoria being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What competition is Mirassol vs Vitoria part of?
Mirassol vs Vitoria is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Mirassol vs Vitoria?
Our statistical model gives Mirassol a 49% chance of winning, Vitoria a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Mirassol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Vitoria?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Mirassol and Vitoria will score (BTTS).
Will Mirassol vs Vitoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Vitoria?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mirassol and Vitoria in?
Mirassol (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Vitoria (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Mirassol's attack at 1.16x the league average against Vitoria's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vitoria's attack (0.77x) against Mirassol's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 14/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mirassol Win
49%
2.06
30%
3.39
22%
4.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Mirassol xG
Total xG
1.99
0.74
Vitoria xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
4.58
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
23%
4.29
6%
16.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 10.1 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 12.6 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mirassol vs Vitoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Mirassol and Vitoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Mirassol and 0.74 for Vitoria, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Mirassol vs Vitoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mirassol's recent record stands at 6W 6D 2L from 14 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Mirassol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vitoria, meanwhile, have gone 3W 7D 4L across 14 games — 1.14 PPG, with D-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Vitoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Mirassol by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vitoria heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Mirassol have managed 4W 2D 0L from 6 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.71 PPG overall — Mirassol are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Vitoria's away record stands at 0W 3D 3L across 6 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Vitoria's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mirassol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mirassol are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Vitoria are on 0.86 scored and 0.93 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Mirassol have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 14 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mirassol
Blended
Vitoria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mirassol and Vitoria in coming into this match?
Mirassol have gone 6W 6D 2L in their last 14 games (1.71 PPG), while Vitoria have gone 3W 7D 4L in their last 14 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mirassol at home or Vitoria away?
Mirassol's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mirassol at home: 2.33 PPG; Vitoria away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Vitoria have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Mirassol
1
Draws
2
Vitoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Vitoria?
From 3 meetings on record, Mirassol have won 0, Vitoria have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mirassol and Vitoria last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Vitoria 1-0 Mirassol.
Who has won more matches between Mirassol and Vitoria?
Vitoria have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Vitoria see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mirassol 67%, Vitoria 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Mirassol) and 17% (Vitoria).
On the defensive side: Mirassol keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Vitoria in 33%; Vitoria in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mirassol home games / Vitoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mirassol play Vitoria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Mirassol's recent matches and 33% of Vitoria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mirassol vs Vitoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Mirassol's recent games and 17% of Vitoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mirassol and Vitoria tend to score early?
Mirassol have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Vitoria in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mirassol and Vitoria share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mirassol and Vitoria finished level at 1-1 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 1.25 xG and Vitoria 0.74 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 1.16 / defence 1.03 against Vitoria attack 0.77 / defence 0.87, drawn from 14/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mirassol 49% | Draw 30% | Vitoria 22%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mirassol 43%, Vitoria 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mirassol's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Vitoria's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Mirassol arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Mirassol (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.