Mirassol 2-1 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Mirassol at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mirassol vs Palmeiras fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Palmeiras travel to Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia to take on Mirassol. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 November 2025, 23:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Mirassol — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Mirassol at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Mirassol are significantly better at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Palmeiras have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Palmeiras's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Palmeiras are 0.50 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Mirassol, 0 for Palmeiras and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jul 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Mirassol in-play and half-time data (32 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Palmeiras in-play and half-time data (32 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mirassol 59% versus Palmeiras 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mirassol 47% | Palmeiras 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 1.56 xG and Palmeiras 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 1.240 / defence 0.912 | Palmeiras attack 1.369 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 0.974. Palmeiras have an above-average attack strength of 1.369 — the away xG of 1.22 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 32 Mirassol games / 69 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mirassol 45% | Draw 25% | Palmeiras 30%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Palmeiras 3.33. Mirassol hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mirassol are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Palmeiras (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mirassol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mirassol 70% | Palmeiras 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mirassol vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Nov 2025, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mirassol 45% | Draw 25% | Palmeiras 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Mirassol 1.56 / Palmeiras 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Mirassol attack 1.240 / def 0.912 | Palmeiras attack 1.369 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.379 / away 0.974 • Poisson stance: Mirassol (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Mirassol xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Palmeiras xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mirassol vs Palmeiras kick off?
Mirassol vs Palmeiras kicked off at 23:30 on Sunday 9 November 2025 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What was the final score in Mirassol vs Palmeiras?
Mirassol 2 - 1 Palmeiras.
Where is Mirassol vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What competition is Mirassol vs Palmeiras part of?
Mirassol vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Mirassol vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Mirassol a 45% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Mirassol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Mirassol and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Mirassol vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Palmeiras?
Record (1 meetings): Mirassol 0W | Draws 1 | Palmeiras 0W.
What form are Mirassol and Palmeiras in?
Mirassol (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Palmeiras (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Mirassol's attack rating (1.24) and Palmeiras's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Mirassol's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mirassol Win
45%
2.20
25%
4.01
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Mirassol xG
Total xG
2.78
1.22
Palmeiras xG
2.20
45%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
13%
7.44
6%
16.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.8 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mirassol vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Mirassol and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Mirassol and 1.22 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Mirassol vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mirassol's recent record stands at 15W 11D 6L from 32 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five.
Palmeiras, meanwhile, have gone 21W 5D 6L across 32 games — 2.12 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mirassol on 1.75 PPG, Palmeiras on 2.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Mirassol have managed 9W 5D 0L from 14 games — 2.29 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.75 PPG overall — Mirassol are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Palmeiras's away record stands at 9W 2D 3L across 14 trips, a 2.07 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Mirassol are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.78 scored and 0.84 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mirassol
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mirassol and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Mirassol have gone 15W 11D 6L in their last 32 games (1.75 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 21W 5D 6L in their last 32 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mirassol at home or Palmeiras away?
Mirassol's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mirassol at home: 2.29 PPG; Palmeiras away: 2.07 PPG.
Have Mirassol or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mirassol have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mirassol and Palmeiras runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Mirassol's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Mirassol
2
Draws
1
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Palmeiras?
From 4 meetings on record, Mirassol have won 1, Palmeiras have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mirassol and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Mirassol 1-1 Palmeiras.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mirassol 64%, Palmeiras 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Mirassol) and 57% (Palmeiras). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mirassol keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mirassol home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mirassol play Palmeiras?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Mirassol's games and 64% of Palmeiras's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mirassol vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Mirassol's matches and 57% of Palmeiras's.
Do Mirassol and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Mirassol have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mirassol edge out Palmeiras 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mirassol beat Palmeiras 2-1 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 1.56 xG and Palmeiras 1.22 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 1.24 / defence 0.91 against Palmeiras attack 1.37 / defence 0.91, drawn from 32/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mirassol 45% | Draw 25% | Palmeiras 30%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mirassol 47%, Palmeiras 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mirassol's trading profile (32 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Palmeiras's trading profile (32 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mirassol 1.75 PPG, Palmeiras 2.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mirassol win broke the near-deadlock. Palmeiras (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.