Juventude 0-0 Sao Paulo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Juventude at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juventude vs Sao Paulo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena BRB Mané Garrincha plays host to Juventude versus Sao Paulo in Serie A, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 21 July 2024 at 22:30 UTC.
Current Form
Juventude's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Juventude, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Juventude have posted 5W 3D 0L at Arena BRB Mané Garrincha — 2.25 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena BRB Mané Garrincha. Their home PPG of 2.25 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Juventude are significantly better at Arena BRB Mané Garrincha than their overall form suggests.
Sao Paulo (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sao Paulo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sao Paulo's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Juventude 0W, Sao Paulo 2W, 2D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with Sao Paulo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Juventude half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Sao Paulo half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Juventude 67% and Sao Paulo 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventude 40% | Sao Paulo 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 1.59 xG and Sao Paulo 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 1.035 / defence 0.815 | Sao Paulo attack 1.114 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 1.041. Data: 15 Juventude games / 55 Sao Paulo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventude 52% | Draw 27% | Sao Paulo 22%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Sao Paulo 4.55. Juventude hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Juventude as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juventude if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Juventude 50% | Sao Paulo 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Sao Paulo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Arena BRB Mané Garrincha • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jul 2024, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 52% | Draw 27% | Sao Paulo 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 49% | xG Juventude 1.59 / Sao Paulo 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 1.035 / def 0.815 | Sao Paulo attack 1.114 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.376 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Juventude (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Sao Paulo xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs Sao Paulo kick off?
Juventude vs Sao Paulo kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 21 July 2024 at Arena BRB Mané Garrincha.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Sao Paulo?
Juventude 0 - 0 Sao Paulo.
Where is Juventude vs Sao Paulo being played?
The match is being played at Arena BRB Mané Garrincha.
What competition is Juventude vs Sao Paulo part of?
Juventude vs Sao Paulo is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Sao Paulo?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 52% chance of winning, Sao Paulo a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Juventude the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Sao Paulo?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Juventude and Sao Paulo will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs Sao Paulo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Sao Paulo?
Record (4 meetings): Juventude 0W | Draws 2 | Sao Paulo 2W.
What form are Juventude and Sao Paulo in?
Juventude (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Sao Paulo (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Juventude's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Sao Paulo's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. Flip it around — Sao Paulo's attack (1.11x) against Juventude's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 15/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventude Win
52%
1.93
27%
3.77
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Juventude xG
Total xG
2.54
0.94
Sao Paulo xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
20%
4.97
4%
22.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 11.9 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Sao Paulo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Juventude and Sao Paulo expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Juventude and 0.94 for Sao Paulo, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Sao Paulo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Juventude's recent record stands at 5W 5D 5L from 15 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Juventude is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sao Paulo, meanwhile, have gone 9W 3D 3L across 15 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Sao Paulo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sao Paulo by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Juventude heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Juventude have managed 4W 3D 0L from 7 games — 2.14 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Juventude are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sao Paulo's away record stands at 3W 2D 2L across 7 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sao Paulo's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventude come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Juventude are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Sao Paulo are on 1.60 scored and 0.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Juventude have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sao Paulo in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Blended
Sao Paulo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventude and Sao Paulo in coming into this match?
Juventude have gone 5W 5D 5L in their last 15 games (1.33 PPG), while Sao Paulo have gone 9W 3D 3L in their last 15 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventude at home or Sao Paulo away?
Juventude's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventude at home: 2.14 PPG; Sao Paulo away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Juventude or Sao Paulo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventude have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Sao Paulo in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 23 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Sao Paulo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juventude have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sao Paulo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Juventude
3
Draws
4
Sao Paulo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Sao Paulo?
From 8 meetings on record, Juventude have won 1, Sao Paulo have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and Sao Paulo last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2025, when Sao Paulo 2-1 Juventude.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Sao Paulo?
Sao Paulo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Sao Paulo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventude 57%, Sao Paulo 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Juventude) and 86% (Sao Paulo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Juventude keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Sao Paulo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventude play Sao Paulo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Juventude's games and 71% of Sao Paulo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Juventude vs Sao Paulo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 29% of Juventude's matches and 86% of Sao Paulo's.
Do Juventude and Sao Paulo tend to score early?
Juventude have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Sao Paulo in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Juventude's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena BRB Mané Garrincha, Regular Season - 18, as Juventude and Sao Paulo drew 0-0 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.59 xG and Sao Paulo 0.94 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Juventude fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Sao Paulo landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 1.03 / defence 0.81 against Sao Paulo attack 1.11 / defence 1.12, drawn from 15/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 52% | Draw 27% | Sao Paulo 22%, with Juventude to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 40%, Sao Paulo 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventude's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Sao Paulo's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sao Paulo arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Juventude (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward. Sao Paulo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.