Juventude 1-1 Internacional – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Juventude at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Juventude vs Internacional encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Juventude host Internacional at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi in Serie A, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 8 May 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Juventude stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Juventude's home record at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
Across all Serie A games this season, Internacional have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Internacional away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Juventude have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Juventude, 1 for Internacional and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2021, ended 2–1 with Juventude winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Juventude in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Internacional in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventude 50% versus Internacional 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Juventude 34% | Internacional 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 1.07 xG and Internacional 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 0.896 / defence 1.048 | Internacional attack 0.855 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 0.928. Data: 42 Juventude games / 42 Internacional games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventude 41% | Draw 32% | Internacional 28%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | Internacional 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Juventude at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juventude offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.90 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Juventude 40% | Internacional 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Internacional | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 41% | Draw 32% | Internacional 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG Juventude 1.07 / Internacional 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 0.896 / def 1.048 | Internacional attack 0.855 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.342 / away 0.928 • Poisson stance: Juventude (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Internacional xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs Internacional kick off?
Juventude vs Internacional kicked off at 23:00 on Sunday 8 May 2022 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Internacional?
Juventude 1 - 1 Internacional.
Where is Juventude vs Internacional being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs Internacional part of?
Juventude vs Internacional is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Internacional?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 41% chance of winning, Internacional a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Juventude the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Internacional?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Juventude and Internacional will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs Internacional have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Internacional?
Record (2 meetings): Juventude 1W | Draws 0 | Internacional 1W.
What form are Juventude and Internacional in?
Juventude (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Internacional (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Juventude's attack rating (0.90) and Internacional's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Internacional's attack versus Juventude's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventude Win
41%
2.47
32%
3.17
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Juventude xG
Total xG
1.90
0.83
Internacional xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
18%
5.67
10%
10.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 12.5 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.3 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Internacional?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Juventude and Internacional expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Juventude and 0.83 for Internacional, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Internacional?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Juventude have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 11W 13D 14L record — D-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Internacional's form line: 12W 12D 14L from 38 games, 1.26 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juventude on 1.21 PPG, Internacional on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Juventude have posted 1.74 PPG from 19 outings (9W 6D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Juventude are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Internacional have gone 4W 6D 9L from 19 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventude come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Juventude are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Internacional are on 1.16 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Current Season
Internacional
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventude and Internacional in coming into this match?
Juventude have gone 11W 13D 14L in their last 38 games (1.21 PPG), while Internacional have gone 12W 12D 14L in their last 38 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventude at home or Internacional away?
Juventude's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventude at home: 1.74 PPG; Internacional away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Juventude or Internacional been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventude have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Internacional in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 27 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Aug 2022, when Internacional won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Juventude's record when hosting Internacional specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Juventude
2
Draws
5
Internacional
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Internacional?
From 8 meetings on record, Juventude have won 1, Internacional have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and Internacional last play each other?
They last met on 27 September 2025, when Juventude 1-1 Internacional.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Internacional?
Internacional have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Juventude see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Internacional see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventude 37%, Internacional 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 32% for Juventude and 32% for Internacional.
On the defensive side: Juventude keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Internacional in 32%; Internacional in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Internacional away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventude play Internacional?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Juventude's recent matches and 37% of Internacional's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventude vs Internacional usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Juventude's recent games and 32% of Internacional's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Juventude and Internacional share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventude and Internacional finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.07 xG and Internacional 0.83 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.90 / defence 1.05 against Internacional attack 0.85 / defence 0.89, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 41% | Draw 32% | Internacional 28%, with Juventude to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 34%, Internacional 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventude's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Internacional's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juventude 1.21 PPG, Internacional 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.