Juventude 1-2 Criciuma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juventude at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juventude vs Criciuma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Criciuma make the trip to Estádio Alfredo Jaconi to face Juventude in Serie A, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 July 2024 at 23:00 UTC.
Form
Juventude (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Juventude, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juventude at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi this season: 5W 4D 0L from 9 home games — 2.11 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 0.44 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi. Their home PPG of 2.11 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Juventude are significantly better at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi than their overall form suggests.
Criciuma's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Criciuma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Criciuma away from home this season: 2W 1D 5L from 8 away games — 0.88 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Juventude against 1.20 for Criciuma. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Juventude 0W, Criciuma 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Juventude goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Criciuma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Juventude 59% and Criciuma 88% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventude 35% | Criciuma 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 1.59 xG and Criciuma 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 0.927 / defence 0.746 | Criciuma attack 1.021 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.023. Criciuma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.256 — this is suppressing Juventude's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Juventude's defence rating of 0.746 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 17 Juventude games / 17 Criciuma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventude 56% | Draw 26% | Criciuma 18%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Criciuma 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Juventude (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Juventude at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. This conflicts with form data: Juventude 44% | Criciuma 88% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Criciuma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jul 2024, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 56% | Draw 26% | Criciuma 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 44% | xG Juventude 1.59 / Criciuma 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 0.927 / def 0.746 | Criciuma attack 1.021 / def 1.256 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: Juventude (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Criciuma xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs Criciuma kick off?
Juventude vs Criciuma kicked off at 23:00 on Saturday 27 July 2024 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Criciuma?
Juventude 1 - 2 Criciuma.
Where is Juventude vs Criciuma being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs Criciuma part of?
Juventude vs Criciuma is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Criciuma?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 56% chance of winning, Criciuma a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Juventude the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Criciuma?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Juventude and Criciuma will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs Criciuma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Criciuma?
Record (1 meetings): Juventude 0W | Draws 1 | Criciuma 0W.
What form are Juventude and Criciuma in?
Juventude (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Criciuma (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Juventude's attack rating (0.93) and Criciuma's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Criciuma's attack (1.02x) against Juventude's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.1%), 2-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventude Win
56%
1.78
26%
3.82
18%
5.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Juventude xG
Total xG
2.36
0.78
Criciuma xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
5.63
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
26%
3.88
4%
27.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 11.6 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Criciuma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Juventude and Criciuma expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Juventude and 0.78 for Criciuma, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Criciuma?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Juventude come into this having played 17 games, going 5W 6D 6L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L. The sample for Juventude is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Criciuma sit at 1.06 PPG from 17 outings (4W 6D 7L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Criciuma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Juventude against 1.06 for Criciuma. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Juventude's home form reads 4W 4D 0L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.24 PPG overall — Juventude are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Criciuma have taken 0.88 points per game from 8 outings (2W 1D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventude come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Juventude are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Criciuma are on 1.41 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Criciuma in 88%.
Last 17 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Blended
Criciuma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventude and Criciuma in coming into this match?
Juventude have gone 5W 6D 6L in their last 17 games (1.24 PPG), while Criciuma have gone 4W 6D 7L in their last 17 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventude at home or Criciuma away?
Juventude's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventude at home: 2.00 PPG; Criciuma away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 July 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Juventude
1
Draws
1
Criciuma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Criciuma?
From 2 meetings on record, Juventude have won 0, Criciuma have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and Criciuma last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2024, when Juventude 1-2 Criciuma.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Criciuma?
Criciuma have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Criciuma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 50% for Juventude, 88% for Criciuma — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Juventude) and 88% (Criciuma). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Juventude keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Criciuma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventude play Criciuma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Juventude's games and 88% of Criciuma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Juventude vs Criciuma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 25% of Juventude's matches and 88% of Criciuma's.
Do Juventude and Criciuma tend to score early?
Juventude have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Criciuma in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Criciuma defy the odds to beat Juventude 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Criciuma beat Juventude 1-2 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.59 xG and Criciuma 0.78 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Criciuma outscored their 0.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.93 / defence 0.75 against Criciuma attack 1.02 / defence 1.26, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 56% | Draw 26% | Criciuma 18%, with Juventude to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Criciuma win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 35%, Criciuma 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 74%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventude's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Criciuma's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 88% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juventude 1.24 PPG, Criciuma 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Criciuma win broke the near-deadlock. Juventude (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.