Juventude 2-1 Bahia – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bahia at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Juventude vs Bahia encounter.

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Analysis

Bahia make the trip to Estádio Alfredo Jaconi to face Juventude in Serie A (matchday 33). The match kicks off on Saturday 9 November 2024 at 22:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Juventude have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Juventude have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Juventude are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Bahia's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Bahia's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bahia are 0.50 PPG clear of Juventude over their recent games (1.10 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Juventude's last 10 home games and Bahia's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Juventude's games and 70% of Bahia's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Bahia edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 4 Jul 2024, ended Juventude 0–2 Bahia — a Bahia win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Juventude goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 32 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Bahia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 32 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Juventude 69% and Bahia 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventude 50% | Bahia 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 1.69 xG and Bahia 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 1.002 / defence 1.538 | Bahia attack 1.171 / defence 1.249. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.008. Bahia's defence rating of 1.249 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Juventude's projected output up. Juventude's defence rating of 1.538 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bahia's projected output up. Data: built from Juventude's last 32 games and Bahia's last 70.

Result probabilities: Juventude 36% | Draw 22% | Bahia 41%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 2.75 | Draw 4.50 | Bahia 2.41. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (1.69 / 1.81) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Bahia are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bahia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.51 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Juventude's last 10 home games and Bahia's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Juventude 70% (last 10 home games) | Bahia 70% (last 10 away games).

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