Juventude 1-1 Atletico Goianiense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juventude at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juventude vs Atletico Goianiense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Juventude and Atletico Goianiense meet at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi in Serie A, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 October 2022 at 22:00 UTC.
Current Form
Juventude's overall Serie A record this term: 0W 4D 6L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Juventude have gone 1W 5D 4L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Atletico Goianiense have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Atletico Goianiense's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Atletico Goianiense arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (0.90 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Juventude register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Atletico Goianiense in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Juventude, 1 for Atletico Goianiense and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Jun 2022, ended 1–3 with Atletico Goianiense winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Juventude half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Atletico Goianiense half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventude 52% versus Atletico Goianiense 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Juventude 42% | Atletico Goianiense 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 1.46 xG and Atletico Goianiense 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 0.878 / defence 1.253 | Atletico Goianiense attack 0.984 / defence 1.260. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 0.926. Atletico Goianiense bring a strong defensive rating of 1.260 — this is suppressing Juventude's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 69 Juventude games / 69 Atletico Goianiense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventude 44% | Draw 26% | Atletico Goianiense 29%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Atletico Goianiense 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Juventude are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Atletico Goianiense (0.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juventude if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Juventude 70% | Atletico Goianiense 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Atletico Goianiense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 44% | Draw 26% | Atletico Goianiense 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Juventude 1.46 / Atletico Goianiense 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 0.878 / def 1.253 | Atletico Goianiense attack 0.984 / def 1.260 | league avg home 1.318 / away 0.926 • Poisson stance: Juventude (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Atletico Goianiense xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs Atletico Goianiense kick off?
Juventude vs Atletico Goianiense kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Atletico Goianiense?
Juventude 1 - 1 Atletico Goianiense.
Where is Juventude vs Atletico Goianiense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs Atletico Goianiense part of?
Juventude vs Atletico Goianiense is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 44% chance of winning, Atletico Goianiense a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Juventude the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Juventude and Atletico Goianiense will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs Atletico Goianiense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Atletico Goianiense?
Record (3 meetings): Juventude 0W | Draws 2 | Atletico Goianiense 1W.
What form are Juventude and Atletico Goianiense in?
Juventude (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Atletico Goianiense (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Juventude's attack rating (0.88) and Atletico Goianiense's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Atletico Goianiense's attack (0.98x) against Juventude's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.2%), 0-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventude Win
44%
2.27
26%
3.77
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Juventude xG
Total xG
2.60
1.14
Atletico Goianiense xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.77
26%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
14%
7.09
7%
14.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.4 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Juventude and Atletico Goianiense expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Juventude and 1.14 for Atletico Goianiense, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Atletico Goianiense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Juventude's recent record stands at 14W 24D 31L from 69 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-L in the last five.
Atletico Goianiense, meanwhile, have gone 20W 22D 27L across 69 games — 1.19 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for Juventude against 1.19 for Atletico Goianiense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Juventude have managed 11W 13D 10L from 34 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atletico Goianiense's away record stands at 9W 8D 17L across 34 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Juventude are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Atletico Goianiense are on 0.93 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Current Season
Atletico Goianiense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventude and Atletico Goianiense in coming into this match?
Juventude have gone 14W 24D 31L in their last 69 games (0.96 PPG), while Atletico Goianiense have gone 20W 22D 27L in their last 69 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventude at home or Atletico Goianiense away?
Juventude's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventude at home: 1.35 PPG; Atletico Goianiense away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 August 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juventude have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Atletico Goianiense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Juventude
3
Draws
2
Atletico Goianiense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Atletico Goianiense?
From 6 meetings on record, Juventude have won 1, Atletico Goianiense have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and Atletico Goianiense last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2024, when Atletico Goianiense 2-1 Juventude.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Atletico Goianiense?
Atletico Goianiense have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Juventude see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Atletico Goianiense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventude 47%, Atletico Goianiense 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Juventude) and 44% (Atletico Goianiense).
On the defensive side: Juventude keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Atletico Goianiense in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Atletico Goianiense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventude play Atletico Goianiense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Juventude's recent matches and 47% of Atletico Goianiense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventude vs Atletico Goianiense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Juventude's recent games and 44% of Atletico Goianiense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventude and Atletico Goianiense tend to score early?
Juventude have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Atletico Goianiense in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juventude and Atletico Goianiense share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 32, as Juventude and Atletico Goianiense drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.46 xG and Atletico Goianiense 1.14 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.88 / defence 1.25 against Atletico Goianiense attack 0.98 / defence 1.26, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 44% | Draw 26% | Atletico Goianiense 29%, with Juventude to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 42%, Atletico Goianiense 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventude's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Atletico Goianiense's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juventude 0.96 PPG, Atletico Goianiense 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.