Internacional 0-1 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Internacional at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Internacional vs Palmeiras fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Palmeiras make the trip to Estádio José Pinheiro Borda to face Internacional in Serie A, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Wednesday 16 April 2025 at 23:30 UTC.
Form
Internacional (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Internacional at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Internacional are significantly better at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda than their overall form suggests.
Palmeiras's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Palmeiras's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Internacional, 1.70 for Palmeiras — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Internacional 2W, Palmeiras 2W, 2D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Internacional — key trading statistics (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Palmeiras — key trading statistics (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Internacional 53% versus Palmeiras 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Internacional 45% | Palmeiras 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Internacional 1.61 xG and Palmeiras 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Internacional attack 1.227 / defence 0.850 | Palmeiras attack 1.197 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 0.931. Data: 41 Internacional games / 41 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Internacional 50% | Draw 31% | Palmeiras 19%. Fair-value odds: Internacional 2.00 | Draw 3.23 | Palmeiras 5.26. Internacional hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Internacional are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Internacional if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Internacional 40% | Palmeiras 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Internacional vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estádio José Pinheiro Borda • Kick-off: Wednesday 16 Apr 2025, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Internacional 50% | Draw 31% | Palmeiras 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Internacional 1.61 / Palmeiras 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Internacional attack 1.227 / def 0.850 | Palmeiras attack 1.197 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.413 / away 0.931 • Poisson stance: Internacional (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Internacional xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Palmeiras xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Internacional vs Palmeiras kick off?
Internacional vs Palmeiras kicked off at 23:30 on Wednesday 16 April 2025 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What was the final score in Internacional vs Palmeiras?
Internacional 0 - 1 Palmeiras.
Where is Internacional vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What competition is Internacional vs Palmeiras part of?
Internacional vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Internacional vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Internacional a 50% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 19% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Internacional the favourite.
Will both teams score in Internacional vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Internacional and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Internacional vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Palmeiras?
Record (6 meetings): Internacional 2W | Draws 2 | Palmeiras 2W.
What form are Internacional and Palmeiras in?
Internacional (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Palmeiras (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Internacional's attack at 1.23x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Palmeiras's attack (1.20x) against Internacional's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Internacional Win
50%
2.01
31%
3.21
19%
5.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Internacional xG
Total xG
2.56
0.95
Palmeiras xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
5.25
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
19%
5.18
4%
26.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.8 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Internacional vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Internacional and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Internacional and 0.95 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Internacional vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 76 outings, Internacional have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 33W 21D 22L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Palmeiras's form line: 42W 17D 17L from 76 games, 1.88 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for Internacional against 1.88 for Palmeiras. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Internacional have posted 1.84 PPG from 38 outings (20W 10D 8L).
On the road, Palmeiras have gone 16W 13D 9L from 38 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Internacional are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.63 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Internacional
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Internacional and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Internacional have gone 33W 21D 22L in their last 76 games (1.58 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 42W 17D 17L in their last 76 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Internacional at home or Palmeiras away?
Internacional's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Internacional at home: 1.84 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Internacional or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Internacional have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Internacional won 3-0 on 13 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Internacional have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Palmeiras — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Internacional
3
Draws
5
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Palmeiras?
From 10 meetings on record, Internacional have won 2, Palmeiras have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Internacional and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Palmeiras 0-0 Internacional.
Who has won more matches between Internacional and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Internacional see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Internacional 55%, Palmeiras 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Internacional) and 42% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Internacional keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Palmeiras in 40%; Palmeiras in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Internacional home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Internacional play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Internacional's recent matches and 42% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Internacional vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Internacional's recent games and 42% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Internacional and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Internacional have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Palmeiras defy the odds to beat Internacional 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Internacional 0-1 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Internacional 1.61 xG and Palmeiras 0.95 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Internacional fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Internacional attack 1.23 / defence 0.85 against Palmeiras attack 1.20 / defence 0.93, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Internacional 50% | Draw 31% | Palmeiras 19%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Palmeiras win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Internacional 45%, Palmeiras 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Internacional's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Palmeiras's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Internacional 1.58 PPG, Palmeiras 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palmeiras win broke the near-deadlock. Internacional (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward. Palmeiras (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.