Internacional 1-1 Mirassol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Internacional at 61% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Internacional face Mirassol.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Mirassol travel to Estádio José Pinheiro Borda to take on Internacional in Serie A (matchday 9). The game is scheduled for Monday 19 May 2025 at 01:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Internacional — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Internacional have gone 8W 1D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Internacional are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Internacional 1.76 xG and Mirassol 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Internacional attack 1.128 / defence 0.912 | Mirassol attack 0.949 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 0.833. Data: built from Internacional's last 46 games and Mirassol's last 8.
Result probabilities: Internacional 61% | Draw 25% | Mirassol 14%. Fair-value odds: Internacional 1.63 | Draw 4.03 | Mirassol 7.18. The model has a clear lean to Internacional (61%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Internacional as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Internacional vs Mirassol | Competition: Serie A, matchday 9 | Venue: Estádio José Pinheiro Borda • Kick-off: Monday 19 May 2025 at 01:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Internacional 61% | Draw 25% | Mirassol 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Internacional 1.76 / Mirassol 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Internacional attack 1.128 / def 0.912 | Mirassol attack 0.949 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.421 / away 0.833 • Poisson stance: Internacional (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Internacional xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Mirassol xG
43%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Internacional vs Mirassol FAQs
What time does Internacional vs Mirassol kick off?
Internacional vs Mirassol kicked off at 01:30 UK time on Monday 19 May 2025 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What was the final score in Internacional vs Mirassol?
Internacional 1 - 1 Mirassol.
Where is Internacional vs Mirassol being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What competition is Internacional vs Mirassol part of?
Internacional vs Mirassol is a Serie A fixture (matchday 9) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Internacional vs Mirassol?
Our statistical model gives Internacional a 61% chance of winning, Mirassol a 14% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Internacional the favourite.
Will both teams score in Internacional vs Mirassol?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Internacional and Mirassol will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Internacional vs Mirassol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Internacional's attack at 1.13x the league average against Mirassol's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mirassol's attack versus Internacional's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Internacional's last 46 games and Mirassol's last 8 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.0%), 1-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Internacional Win
61%
1.63
25%
4.03
14%
7.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Internacional xG
Total xG
2.48
0.72
Mirassol xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
7.18
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
49%
2.06
17%
5.81
Win to Nil
30%
3.36
2%
41.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 10.6 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Internacional vs Mirassol Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Internacional vs Mirassol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Internacional and Mirassol expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Internacional and 0.72 for Mirassol, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Internacional vs Mirassol?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Internacional
Pre-Season
Mirassol
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Internacional (Home) vs Mirassol (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Internacional
Pre-Season
Mirassol
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2025. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 16 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Mirassol have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Internacional's record when hosting Mirassol specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Internacional
1
Draws
3
Mirassol
Recent Meetings
❓ Internacional vs Mirassol H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Mirassol?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Internacional have won 0, Mirassol have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Internacional and Mirassol last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 October 2026: Mirassol 2-0 Internacional.
Who has won more matches between Internacional and Mirassol?
Mirassol have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Internacional home games / Mirassol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Internacional and Mirassol share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda, Regular Season - 9, as Internacional and Mirassol drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Internacional 1.76 xG and Mirassol 0.72 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Internacional attack 1.13 / defence 0.91 against Mirassol attack 0.95 / defence 1.10, drawn from 46/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Internacional 61% | Draw 25% | Mirassol 14%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.