Internacional 0-0 Gremio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Internacional at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Internacional vs Gremio encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 11 as Internacional welcome Gremio to Estádio Beira-Rio. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 April 2026 at 23:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Internacional stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Internacional's home record at Estádio Beira-Rio: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Internacional are significantly better at Estádio Beira-Rio than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Gremio have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Gremio's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Internacional 0.90 PPG, Gremio 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Internacional register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Gremio in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Internacional, 2 for Gremio and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 2–3 with Gremio winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Internacional trading profile (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Gremio trading profile (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Internacional 58% versus Gremio 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Internacional 46% | Gremio 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Internacional 1.30 xG and Gremio 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Internacional attack 0.813 / defence 1.043 | Gremio attack 0.966 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.030. Data: 48 Internacional games / 48 Gremio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Internacional 42% | Draw 29% | Gremio 29%. Fair-value odds: Internacional 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Gremio 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Internacional as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Internacional offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Internacional 70% | Gremio 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Internacional vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estádio Beira-Rio • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Internacional 42% | Draw 29% | Gremio 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Internacional 1.30 / Gremio 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Internacional attack 0.813 / def 1.043 | Gremio attack 0.966 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.030 • Poisson stance: Internacional (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Internacional xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Gremio xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Internacional vs Gremio kick off?
Internacional vs Gremio kicked off at 23:30 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Estádio Beira-Rio.
What was the final score in Internacional vs Gremio?
Internacional 0 - 0 Gremio.
Where is Internacional vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Beira-Rio.
What competition is Internacional vs Gremio part of?
Internacional vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Internacional vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Internacional a 42% chance of winning, Gremio a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Internacional the favourite.
Will both teams score in Internacional vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Internacional and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will Internacional vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Gremio?
Record (8 meetings): Internacional 4W | Draws 2 | Gremio 2W.
What form are Internacional and Gremio in?
Internacional (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Gremio (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Internacional's attack at 0.81x the league average against Gremio's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gremio's attack versus Internacional's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Internacional Win
42%
2.37
29%
3.50
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Internacional xG
Total xG
2.34
1.04
Gremio xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
15%
6.70
8%
12.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.0 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Internacional vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Internacional and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Internacional and 1.04 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Internacional vs Gremio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Internacional come into this having played 76 games, going 29W 22D 25L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-W.
On the other side, Gremio sit at 1.24 PPG from 76 outings (25W 19D 32L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Internacional on 1.43 PPG, Gremio on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Internacional's home form reads 19W 11D 8L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Gremio have taken 0.87 points per game from 38 outings (7W 12D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Internacional come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Internacional are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 1.20 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Internacional
Current Season
Gremio
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Internacional and Gremio in coming into this match?
Internacional have gone 29W 22D 25L in their last 76 games (1.43 PPG), while Gremio have gone 25W 19D 32L in their last 76 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Internacional at home or Gremio away?
Internacional's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Internacional at home: 1.79 PPG; Gremio away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Internacional's record when hosting Gremio specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Internacional
3
Draws
2
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Gremio?
From 9 meetings on record, Internacional have won 4, Gremio have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Internacional and Gremio last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Internacional 0-0 Gremio.
Who has won more matches between Internacional and Gremio?
Internacional have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Internacional are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Internacional 58%, Gremio 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Internacional) and 45% (Gremio).
On the defensive side: Internacional keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Gremio in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Internacional home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Internacional play Gremio?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Internacional's games and 55% of Gremio's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Internacional vs Gremio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Internacional's recent games and 45% of Gremio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Internacional and Gremio tend to score early?
Internacional have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Gremio in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Internacional's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Beira-Rio, Regular Season - 11, as Internacional and Gremio drew 0-0 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Internacional 1.30 xG and Gremio 1.04 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Internacional fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Gremio landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Internacional attack 0.81 / defence 1.04 against Gremio attack 0.97 / defence 1.07, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Internacional 42% | Draw 29% | Gremio 29%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Internacional 46%, Gremio 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Internacional's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Gremio's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Internacional 1.43 PPG, Gremio 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Internacional (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Gremio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.