Internacional 2-0 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Internacional at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Internacional vs Bahia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 22 as Internacional welcome Bahia to Estádio José Pinheiro Borda. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 September 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Internacional — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Internacional, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Internacional have posted 3W 3D 3L at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda — 1.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.33 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bahia stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bahia have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Internacional carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Internacional, 0 for Bahia and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 14 Jun 2021, ended 1–0 with Internacional winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Internacional in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Bahia in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Internacional 50% versus Bahia 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Internacional 40% | Bahia 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Internacional 1.23 xG and Bahia 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Internacional attack 1.001 / defence 1.133 | Bahia attack 0.721 / defence 1.430. League average goals — home 0.858 / away 1.038. Bahia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.430 — this is suppressing Internacional's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Internacional games / 21 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Internacional 43% | Draw 33% | Bahia 23%. Fair-value odds: Internacional 2.33 | Draw 3.03 | Bahia 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Internacional as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Internacional offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Internacional 44% | Bahia 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Internacional vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estádio José Pinheiro Borda • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Internacional 43% | Draw 33% | Bahia 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Internacional 1.23 / Bahia 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Internacional attack 1.001 / def 1.133 | Bahia attack 0.721 / def 1.430 | league avg home 0.858 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: Internacional (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Internacional xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Bahia xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Internacional vs Bahia kick off?
Internacional vs Bahia kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What was the final score in Internacional vs Bahia?
Internacional 2 - 0 Bahia.
Where is Internacional vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What competition is Internacional vs Bahia part of?
Internacional vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Internacional vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Internacional a 43% chance of winning, Bahia a 23% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Internacional the favourite.
Will both teams score in Internacional vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Internacional and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Internacional vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Bahia?
Record (1 meetings): Internacional 1W | Draws 0 | Bahia 0W.
What form are Internacional and Bahia in?
Internacional (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Bahia (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Internacional's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Bahia's defensive record (1.43x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Bahia's attack versus Internacional's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Internacional Win
43%
2.32
33%
2.99
23%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Internacional xG
Total xG
2.08
0.85
Bahia xG
2.32
43%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
4.26
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
18%
5.42
7%
14.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 10.6 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.1 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Internacional vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Internacional and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Internacional and 0.85 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Internacional vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Internacional's recent record stands at 7W 8D 5L from 20 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Internacional is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bahia, meanwhile, have gone 5W 5D 10L across 20 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Internacional by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bahia heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Internacional have managed 3W 3D 3L from 9 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bahia's away record stands at 2W 2D 5L across 9 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Internacional come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Internacional are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.10 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Defensively: Internacional have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Internacional
Blended
Bahia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Internacional and Bahia in coming into this match?
Internacional have gone 7W 8D 5L in their last 20 games (1.45 PPG), while Bahia have gone 5W 5D 10L in their last 20 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Internacional at home or Bahia away?
Internacional's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Internacional at home: 1.33 PPG; Bahia away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Internacional or Bahia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Internacional have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Bahia in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Internacional's record when hosting Bahia specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Internacional
2
Draws
3
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Bahia?
From 9 meetings on record, Internacional have won 4, Bahia have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Internacional and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Internacional 0-1 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Internacional and Bahia?
Internacional have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Internacional are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Bahia see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Internacional 44%, Bahia 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Internacional and 33% for Bahia.
On the defensive side: Internacional keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Internacional have failed to score in 33% of games; Bahia in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Internacional home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Internacional play Bahia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Internacional's recent matches and 33% of Bahia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Internacional vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Internacional's recent games and 33% of Bahia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Internacional and Bahia tend to score early?
Internacional have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bahia in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Internacional cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bahia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Internacional beat Bahia 2-0 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Internacional 1.23 xG and Bahia 0.85 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bahia landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Internacional attack 1.00 / defence 1.13 against Bahia attack 0.72 / defence 1.43, drawn from 20/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Internacional 43% | Draw 33% | Bahia 23%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Internacional 40%, Bahia 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Internacional's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bahia's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Internacional arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Internacional (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.