Internacional 0-1 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bahia at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Internacional vs Bahia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 6 as Internacional welcome Bahia to Estádio Beira-Rio. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Internacional — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Internacional have posted 4W 4D 2L at Estádio Beira-Rio — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Internacional are significantly better at Estádio Beira-Rio than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bahia stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Bahia have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Internacional) versus 1.40 (Bahia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Internacional, 2 for Bahia and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Internacional in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Bahia in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Internacional 58% versus Bahia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Internacional 46% | Bahia 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Internacional 1.21 xG and Bahia 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Internacional attack 0.875 / defence 1.127 | Bahia attack 0.985 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.139. Data: 43 Internacional games / 42 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Internacional 35% | Draw 28% | Bahia 37%. Fair-value odds: Internacional 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Bahia 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Internacional dominate the H2H record, yet Bahia are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Bahia as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bahia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Internacional 70% | Bahia 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Internacional vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estádio Beira-Rio • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Internacional 35% | Draw 28% | Bahia 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Internacional 1.21 / Bahia 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Internacional attack 0.875 / def 1.127 | Bahia attack 0.985 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Bahia (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Internacional xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Bahia xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Internacional vs Bahia kick off?
Internacional vs Bahia kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 15 March 2026 at Estádio Beira-Rio.
What was the final score in Internacional vs Bahia?
Internacional 0 - 1 Bahia.
Where is Internacional vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Beira-Rio.
What competition is Internacional vs Bahia part of?
Internacional vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Internacional vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Internacional a 35% chance of winning, Bahia a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Internacional vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Internacional and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Internacional vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Bahia?
Record (8 meetings): Internacional 4W | Draws 2 | Bahia 2W.
What form are Internacional and Bahia in?
Internacional (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Bahia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Internacional's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Bahia's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, Bahia's attack versus Internacional's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
35%
2.87
28%
3.60
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Internacional xG
Total xG
2.48
1.26
Bahia xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
10%
10.16
11%
8.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.6 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Internacional vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Internacional and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Internacional and 1.26 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Internacional vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Internacional's recent record stands at 29W 22D 25L from 76 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-W in the last five.
Bahia, meanwhile, have gone 32W 17D 27L across 76 games — 1.49 PPG, with L-W-D-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Internacional on 1.43 PPG, Bahia on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Internacional have managed 19W 11D 8L from 38 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bahia's away record stands at 7W 11D 20L across 38 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.49 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bahia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Internacional come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Internacional are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.30 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Internacional
Current Season
Bahia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Internacional and Bahia in coming into this match?
Internacional have gone 29W 22D 25L in their last 76 games (1.43 PPG), while Bahia have gone 32W 17D 27L in their last 76 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Internacional at home or Bahia away?
Internacional's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Internacional at home: 1.79 PPG; Bahia away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Internacional or Bahia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Internacional have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Bahia in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Bahia have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Internacional's record when hosting Bahia specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Internacional
2
Draws
4
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Bahia?
From 10 meetings on record, Internacional have won 4, Bahia have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Internacional and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Bahia 3-2 Internacional.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Internacional are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Internacional 58%, Bahia 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Internacional) and 60% (Bahia).
On the defensive side: Internacional keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Bahia in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Internacional home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Internacional play Bahia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Internacional's games and 66% of Bahia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Internacional vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Internacional's recent games and 60% of Bahia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Internacional and Bahia tend to score early?
Internacional have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Bahia in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bahia edge out Internacional 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bahia beat Internacional 0-1 at Estádio Beira-Rio, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Internacional 1.21 xG and Bahia 1.26 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Internacional fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Internacional attack 0.88 / defence 1.13 against Bahia attack 0.98 / defence 0.94, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Internacional 35% | Draw 28% | Bahia 37%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Internacional 46%, Bahia 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Internacional's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Bahia's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Internacional 1.43 PPG, Bahia 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bahia win broke the near-deadlock. Internacional (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Bahia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.