Gremio 1-3 Corinthians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gremio at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gremio vs Corinthians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gremio host Corinthians at Arena do Grêmio in Serie A, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 May 2026 at 20:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gremio stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gremio have posted 5W 2D 3L at Arena do Grêmio — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Corinthians — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Corinthians's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Gremio at 1.30 PPG versus Corinthians's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
Corinthians have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 8 encounters against Gremio's 0 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 0–2 with Corinthians winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Corinthians have won 4 of 8 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Gremio in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Corinthians in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gremio 53% versus Corinthians 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gremio 43% | Corinthians 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 1.45 xG and Corinthians 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 1.001 / defence 0.892 | Corinthians attack 0.795 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.121. Data: 55 Gremio games / 55 Corinthians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gremio 52% | Draw 27% | Corinthians 20%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Corinthians 5.00. Gremio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gremio are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gremio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Gremio 50% | Corinthians 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs Corinthians | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Arena do Grêmio • Kick-off: Saturday 30 May 2026, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 52% | Draw 27% | Corinthians 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 42% | xG Gremio 1.45 / Corinthians 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 1.001 / def 0.892 | Corinthians attack 0.795 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Gremio (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Corinthians xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gremio vs Corinthians kick off?
Gremio vs Corinthians kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 30 May 2026 at Arena do Grêmio.
What was the final score in Gremio vs Corinthians?
Gremio 1 - 3 Corinthians.
Where is Gremio vs Corinthians being played?
The match is being played at Arena do Grêmio.
What competition is Gremio vs Corinthians part of?
Gremio vs Corinthians is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs Corinthians?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 52% chance of winning, Corinthians a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Gremio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Corinthians?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Gremio and Corinthians will score (BTTS).
Will Gremio vs Corinthians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Corinthians?
Record (8 meetings): Gremio 0W | Draws 4 | Corinthians 4W.
What form are Gremio and Corinthians in?
Gremio (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Corinthians (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gremio's attack rating (1.00) and Corinthians's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Corinthians's attack versus Gremio's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.8%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gremio Win
52%
1.91
27%
3.66
20%
4.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Gremio xG
Total xG
2.24
0.80
Corinthians xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
4.90
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
5%
20.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 12.2 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Corinthians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Gremio and Corinthians expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Gremio and 0.80 for Corinthians, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Corinthians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gremio come into this having played 76 games, going 25W 19D 32L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W.
On the other side, Corinthians sit at 1.36 PPG from 76 outings (27W 22D 27L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gremio on 1.24 PPG, Corinthians on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Gremio's home form reads 18W 7D 13L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, Corinthians have taken 0.92 points per game from 38 outings (9W 8D 21L). That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Corinthians's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gremio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gremio are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Corinthians are on 1.26 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Current Season
Corinthians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gremio and Corinthians in coming into this match?
Gremio have gone 25W 19D 32L in their last 76 games (1.24 PPG), while Corinthians have gone 27W 22D 27L in their last 76 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gremio at home or Corinthians away?
Gremio's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gremio at home: 1.61 PPG; Corinthians away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gremio and Corinthians runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 30 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Corinthians go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Dec 2024, when Corinthians won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gremio's record when hosting Corinthians specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Gremio
4
Draws
5
Corinthians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Corinthians?
From 9 meetings on record, Gremio have won 0, Corinthians have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and Corinthians last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Gremio 1-3 Corinthians.
Who has won more matches between Gremio and Corinthians?
Corinthians have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Corinthians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gremio 50%, Corinthians 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Gremio) and 42% (Corinthians).
On the defensive side: Gremio have failed to score in 26% of games; Corinthians in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / Corinthians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gremio play Corinthians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Gremio's recent matches and 45% of Corinthians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gremio vs Corinthians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Gremio's recent games and 42% of Corinthians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gremio and Corinthians tend to score early?
Gremio have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Corinthians in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Corinthians cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Gremio.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Corinthians beat Gremio 1-3 at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 1.45 xG and Corinthians 0.80 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Corinthians outscored their 0.80 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 1.00 / defence 0.89 against Corinthians attack 0.80 / defence 0.98, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 52% | Draw 27% | Corinthians 20%, with Gremio to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Corinthians win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 43%, Corinthians 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gremio's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Corinthians's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gremio 1.24 PPG, Corinthians 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Corinthians win broke the near-deadlock. Gremio (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Corinthians (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.