Goias 0-0 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Goias vs Flamengo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Flamengo make the trip to Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro to face Goias in Serie A, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Wednesday 20 September 2023 at 23:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Goias have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Goias, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Goias at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Flamengo's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Flamengo's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Goias, 1.40 for Flamengo — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Goias lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2023, ended 0–2 with Flamengo winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Goias — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Flamengo — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Goias 51% versus Flamengo 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Goias 39% | Flamengo 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Goias 1.16 xG and Flamengo 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Goias attack 0.773 / defence 1.018 | Flamengo attack 1.346 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 0.995. Goias's attack strength of 0.773 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Flamengo have an above-average attack strength of 1.346 — the away xG of 1.36 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 61 Goias games / 61 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Goias 31% | Draw 29% | Flamengo 40%. Fair-value odds: Goias 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Flamengo 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Flamengo are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Flamengo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Goias 50% | Flamengo 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Goias vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 Sep 2023, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Goias 31% | Draw 29% | Flamengo 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Goias 1.16 / Flamengo 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Goias attack 0.773 / def 1.018 | Flamengo attack 1.346 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.354 / away 0.995 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Goias xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Flamengo xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Goias vs Flamengo kick off?
Goias vs Flamengo kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 20 September 2023 at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro.
What was the final score in Goias vs Flamengo?
Goias 0 - 0 Flamengo.
Where is Goias vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro.
What competition is Goias vs Flamengo part of?
Goias vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Goias vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Goias a 31% chance of winning, Flamengo a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Goias vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Goias and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Goias vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Goias and Flamengo?
Record (3 meetings): Goias 0W | Draws 1 | Flamengo 2W.
What form are Goias and Flamengo in?
Goias (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Flamengo (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Goias's attack at 0.77x the league average against Flamengo's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Flamengo's attack (1.35x) against Goias's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
31%
3.26
29%
3.42
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Goias xG
Total xG
2.52
1.36
Flamengo xG
3.26
31%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
8%
12.75
13%
7.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.9 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Goias vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Goias and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Goias and 1.36 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Goias vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Goias come into this having played 61 games, going 17W 20D 24L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-L. The sample for Goias is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Flamengo sit at 1.66 PPG from 61 outings (29W 14D 18L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Flamengo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Goias — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Goias's home form reads 9W 13D 8L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Flamengo have taken 1.50 points per game from 30 outings (13W 6D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Goias are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.57 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Goias
Blended
Flamengo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Goias and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Goias have gone 17W 20D 24L in their last 61 games (1.16 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 29W 14D 18L in their last 61 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Goias at home or Flamengo away?
Flamengo's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Goias at home: 1.33 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 September 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Goias have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Flamengo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Goias
2
Draws
2
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Goias and Flamengo?
From 4 meetings on record, Goias have won 0, Flamengo have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Goias and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2023, when Goias 0-0 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Goias and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Goias see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Goias 57%, Flamengo 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Goias) and 63% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Goias have failed to score in 27% of games; Flamengo in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Goias home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Goias play Flamengo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Goias's games and 67% of Flamengo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Goias vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Goias's recent games and 63% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Goias and Flamengo tend to score early?
Goias have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Goias's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Goias and Flamengo finished level at 0-0 at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Goias 1.16 xG and Flamengo 1.36 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Goias fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Flamengo landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Goias attack 0.77 / defence 1.02 against Flamengo attack 1.35 / defence 1.11, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Goias 31% | Draw 29% | Flamengo 40%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Goias 39%, Flamengo 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Goias's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Flamengo's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Goias (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.