Fortaleza EC 0-1 Cruzeiro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortaleza EC at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Fortaleza EC face Cruzeiro.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Fortaleza EC welcome Cruzeiro to Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Serie A (matchday 30). Kick-off is Saturday 18 November 2023 at 21:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Fortaleza EC stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Fortaleza EC have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Fortaleza EC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Cruzeiro — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Cruzeiro away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Fortaleza EC) versus 1.10 (Cruzeiro). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Fortaleza EC, 0 for Cruzeiro and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 21 Jun 2023, ended Fortaleza EC 1–0 Cruzeiro — a Fortaleza EC win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Fortaleza EC in-play tendencies (last 32 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Cruzeiro in-play tendencies (last 32 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 44% of Fortaleza EC's games and 25% of Cruzeiro's. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fortaleza EC 41% | Cruzeiro 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortaleza EC 1.12 xG and Cruzeiro 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortaleza EC attack 1.025 / defence 1.017 | Cruzeiro attack 0.770 / defence 0.822. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.090. Cruzeiro's attack rating of 0.770 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.85. Data: built from Fortaleza EC's last 70 games and Cruzeiro's last 32.
Result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 41% | Draw 32% | Cruzeiro 27%. Fair-value odds: Fortaleza EC 2.43 | Draw 3.15 | Cruzeiro 3.69. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fortaleza EC as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortaleza EC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.98 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 68% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fortaleza EC 50% (last 10 home games) | Cruzeiro 10% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortaleza EC vs Cruzeiro | Competition: Serie A, matchday 30 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Saturday 18 November 2023 at 21:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 41% | Draw 32% | Cruzeiro 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Fortaleza EC 1.12 / Cruzeiro 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Fortaleza EC attack 1.025 / def 1.017 | Cruzeiro attack 0.770 / def 0.822 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Fortaleza EC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Fortaleza EC xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Cruzeiro xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fortaleza EC vs Cruzeiro FAQs
What time does Fortaleza EC vs Cruzeiro kick off?
Fortaleza EC vs Cruzeiro kicked off at 21:30 UK time on Saturday 18 November 2023 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Fortaleza EC vs Cruzeiro?
Fortaleza EC 0 - 1 Cruzeiro.
Where is Fortaleza EC vs Cruzeiro being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Fortaleza EC vs Cruzeiro part of?
Fortaleza EC vs Cruzeiro is a Serie A fixture (matchday 30) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fortaleza EC vs Cruzeiro?
Our statistical model gives Fortaleza EC a 41% chance of winning, Cruzeiro a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Fortaleza EC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs Cruzeiro?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Fortaleza EC and Cruzeiro will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Fortaleza EC vs Cruzeiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fortaleza EC's attack at 1.02x the league average against Cruzeiro's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cruzeiro's attack versus Fortaleza EC's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Fortaleza EC's last 70 games and Cruzeiro's last 32 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortaleza EC Win
41%
2.43
32%
3.15
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Fortaleza EC xG
Total xG
1.98
0.85
Cruzeiro xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
18%
5.70
9%
11.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 11.8 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fortaleza EC vs Cruzeiro Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortaleza EC vs Cruzeiro?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Fortaleza EC and Cruzeiro expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 0.85 for Cruzeiro, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortaleza EC vs Cruzeiro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fortaleza EC come into this having played 32 games, going 12W 7D 13L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Cruzeiro sit at 1.16 PPG from 32 outings (9W 10D 13L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fortaleza EC on 1.34 PPG, Cruzeiro on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Fortaleza EC's home form reads 8W 4D 3L across their last 15 home games, a 1.87 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.34 PPG overall — Fortaleza EC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Cruzeiro have taken 1.33 points per game from their last 15 away games (5W 5D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortaleza EC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fortaleza EC are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Cruzeiro are on 0.91 scored and 0.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cruzeiro in 25%.
Defensively: Cruzeiro in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortaleza EC
Current Season
Cruzeiro
Current Season
Fortaleza EC (Home) vs Cruzeiro (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fortaleza EC
Current Season
Cruzeiro
Current Season
❓ Fortaleza EC vs Cruzeiro Form FAQs
What form are Fortaleza EC and Cruzeiro in coming into this match?
Fortaleza EC have gone 12W 7D 13L in their last 32 games (1.34 PPG), while Cruzeiro have gone 9W 10D 13L in their last 32 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortaleza EC at home or Cruzeiro away?
Fortaleza EC's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortaleza EC at home: 1.87 PPG; Cruzeiro away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Fortaleza EC or Cruzeiro been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Cruzeiro in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to June 2023. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 19 October 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Cruzeiro have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Fortaleza EC's record when hosting Cruzeiro specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Fortaleza EC
1
Draws
3
Cruzeiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Fortaleza EC vs Cruzeiro H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Cruzeiro?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Fortaleza EC have won 2, Cruzeiro have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Fortaleza EC and Cruzeiro last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 October 2025: Cruzeiro 1-0 Fortaleza EC.
Who has won more matches between Fortaleza EC and Cruzeiro?
Cruzeiro have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fortaleza EC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Cruzeiro see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Fortaleza EC 47% BTTS, Cruzeiro 20%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Fortaleza EC) and 40% (Cruzeiro).
On the defensive side: Fortaleza EC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cruzeiro in 47%; Fortaleza EC have failed to score in 33% of games; Cruzeiro in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortaleza EC home games / Cruzeiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fortaleza EC vs Cruzeiro Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fortaleza EC and Cruzeiro matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Fortaleza EC's recent matches and 20% of Cruzeiro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Fortaleza EC and Cruzeiro matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Fortaleza EC's recent games and 40% of Cruzeiro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Cruzeiro defy the odds to beat Fortaleza EC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cruzeiro beat Fortaleza EC 0-1 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 1.12 xG and Cruzeiro 0.85 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Fortaleza EC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 1.02 / defence 1.02 against Cruzeiro attack 0.77 / defence 0.82, drawn from 70/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 41% | Draw 32% | Cruzeiro 27%, with Fortaleza EC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Cruzeiro win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 41%, Cruzeiro 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 34%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cruzeiro's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortaleza EC 1.34 PPG, Cruzeiro 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cruzeiro win broke the near-deadlock. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward. Cruzeiro (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.