Fortaleza EC 1-0 Criciuma – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Fortaleza EC at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortaleza EC vs Criciuma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Criciuma make the trip to Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo to face Fortaleza EC in Serie A, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 August 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fortaleza EC's overall Serie A record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fortaleza EC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fortaleza EC have posted 8W 2D 0L at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo — 2.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
Criciuma (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Criciuma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Criciuma have posted 3W 1D 5L from 9 away outings — 1.11 PPG. Away from home they average 1.56 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 89% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Fortaleza EC's 2.50 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Criciuma's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Fortaleza EC, 0 for Criciuma and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Fortaleza EC half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Criciuma half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 26% of the time; BTTS occurs in 89% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 89% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fortaleza EC 53% and Criciuma 90% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortaleza EC 37% | Criciuma 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortaleza EC 1.93 xG and Criciuma 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortaleza EC attack 1.197 / defence 0.735 | Criciuma attack 1.090 / defence 1.235. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.056. Criciuma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.235 — this is suppressing Fortaleza EC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Fortaleza EC's defence rating of 0.735 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 58 Fortaleza EC games / 19 Criciuma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 63% | Draw 21% | Criciuma 16%. Fair-value odds: Fortaleza EC 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Criciuma 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Fortaleza EC (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortaleza EC at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Fortaleza EC 50% | Criciuma 89% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortaleza EC vs Criciuma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Aug 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 63% | Draw 21% | Criciuma 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 49% | xG Fortaleza EC 1.93 / Criciuma 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Fortaleza EC attack 1.197 / def 0.735 | Criciuma attack 1.090 / def 1.235 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.056 • Poisson stance: Fortaleza EC (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Fortaleza EC xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Criciuma xG
49%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortaleza EC vs Criciuma kick off?
Fortaleza EC vs Criciuma kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 10 August 2024 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Fortaleza EC vs Criciuma?
Fortaleza EC 1 - 0 Criciuma.
Where is Fortaleza EC vs Criciuma being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Fortaleza EC vs Criciuma part of?
Fortaleza EC vs Criciuma is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fortaleza EC vs Criciuma?
Our statistical model gives Fortaleza EC a 63% chance of winning, Criciuma a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Fortaleza EC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs Criciuma?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Fortaleza EC and Criciuma will score (BTTS).
Will Fortaleza EC vs Criciuma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Criciuma?
Record (1 meetings): Fortaleza EC 0W | Draws 1 | Criciuma 0W.
What form are Fortaleza EC and Criciuma in?
Fortaleza EC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Criciuma (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Fortaleza EC's attack rating (1.20) and Criciuma's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.93 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Criciuma's attack (1.09x) against Fortaleza EC's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 58/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortaleza EC Win
63%
1.59
21%
4.67
16%
6.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Fortaleza EC xG
Total xG
2.77
0.85
Criciuma xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
6.33
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
15%
6.88
Win to Nil
27%
3.71
2%
43.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 10.2 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortaleza EC vs Criciuma?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Fortaleza EC and Criciuma expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 0.85 for Criciuma, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortaleza EC vs Criciuma?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 19 outings, Fortaleza EC have picked up 1.89 PPG on a 10W 6D 3L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Fortaleza EC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Criciuma's form line: 6W 6D 7L from 19 games, 1.26 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-W. The sample for Criciuma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Fortaleza EC are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Criciuma.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fortaleza EC have posted 2.78 PPG from 9 outings (8W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.89 PPG overall — Fortaleza EC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Criciuma have gone 3W 1D 5L from 9 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortaleza EC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fortaleza EC are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Criciuma are on 1.47 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Criciuma in 89%.
Last 19 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortaleza EC
Blended
Criciuma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortaleza EC and Criciuma in coming into this match?
Fortaleza EC have gone 10W 6D 3L in their last 19 games (1.89 PPG), while Criciuma have gone 6W 6D 7L in their last 19 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortaleza EC at home or Criciuma away?
Fortaleza EC's home record (2.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortaleza EC at home: 2.78 PPG; Criciuma away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Fortaleza EC or Criciuma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Criciuma in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since July 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Fortaleza EC
1
Draws
0
Criciuma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Criciuma?
From 2 meetings on record, Fortaleza EC have won 1, Criciuma have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fortaleza EC and Criciuma last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2024, when Fortaleza EC 1-0 Criciuma.
Who has won more matches between Fortaleza EC and Criciuma?
Fortaleza EC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fortaleza EC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Criciuma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 44% for Fortaleza EC, 89% for Criciuma — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 44% for Fortaleza EC and 89% for Criciuma. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortaleza EC keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortaleza EC home games / Criciuma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortaleza EC play Criciuma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Fortaleza EC's games and 89% of Criciuma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortaleza EC vs Criciuma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Fortaleza EC's matches and 89% of Criciuma's.
Do Fortaleza EC and Criciuma tend to score early?
Fortaleza EC have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Criciuma in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fortaleza EC edge out Criciuma 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortaleza EC beat Criciuma 1-0 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 1.93 xG and Criciuma 0.85 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fortaleza EC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Criciuma landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 1.20 / defence 0.73 against Criciuma attack 1.09 / defence 1.24, drawn from 58/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 63% | Draw 21% | Criciuma 16%, with Fortaleza EC to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 37%, Criciuma 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Criciuma's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 90% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortaleza EC arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Criciuma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.