Fluminense 2-1 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fluminense (45%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Fluminense face RB Bragantino.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
RB Bragantino make the trip to Estádio do Maracanã to face Fluminense in Serie A (matchday 2). The match kicks off on Sunday 6 April 2025 at 21:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Fluminense have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Fluminense at home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
RB Bragantino's record over their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, RB Bragantino have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Fluminense. A 0.50 PPG lead over RB Bragantino (1.60 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record in our data favours Fluminense, who have won 5 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against RB Bragantino — RB Bragantino have 1 win, with 1 draw.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Jul 2024, ended Fluminense 1–0 RB Bragantino — a Fluminense win.
The head-to-head data gives Fluminense an edge — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Data
Fluminense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
RB Bragantino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 40% versus RB Bragantino 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fluminense 36% | RB Bragantino 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 1.35 xG and RB Bragantino 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 0.944 / defence 0.958 | RB Bragantino attack 0.988 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 0.902. Data: built from Fluminense's last 39 games and RB Bragantino's last 39. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Fluminense 45% | Draw 34% | RB Bragantino 21%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 2.21 | Draw 2.94 | RB Bragantino 4.84. Fluminense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fluminense are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fluminense if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Fluminense's last 10 home games and RB Bragantino's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fluminense 20% (last 10 home games) | RB Bragantino 60% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Fluminense 39 games, RB Bragantino 39) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, matchday 2 | Venue: Estádio do Maracanã • Kick-off: Sunday 6 April 2025 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 45% | Draw 34% | RB Bragantino 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Fluminense 1.35 / RB Bragantino 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 0.944 / def 0.958 | RB Bragantino attack 0.988 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.378 / away 0.902 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
0.85
RB Bragantino xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fluminense vs RB Bragantino FAQs
What time does Fluminense vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Fluminense vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Estádio do Maracanã.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs RB Bragantino?
Fluminense 2 - 1 RB Bragantino.
Where is Fluminense vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Maracanã.
What competition is Fluminense vs RB Bragantino part of?
Fluminense vs RB Bragantino is a Serie A fixture (matchday 2) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 45% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 21% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Fluminense and RB Bragantino will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Fluminense vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fluminense's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against RB Bragantino's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — RB Bragantino's attack (0.99x) against Fluminense's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from Fluminense's last 39 games and RB Bragantino's last 39, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
45%
2.21
34%
2.94
21%
4.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Fluminense xG
Total xG
2.20
0.85
RB Bragantino xG
2.21
45%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
4.84
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
19%
5.19
5%
18.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.7 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fluminense vs RB Bragantino Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Fluminense and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Fluminense and 0.85 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs RB Bragantino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fluminense's recent record stands at 28W 18D 30L from 76 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-W in the last five.
RB Bragantino, meanwhile, have gone 27W 25D 24L across 76 games — 1.39 PPG, with D-L-D-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for Fluminense against 1.39 for RB Bragantino. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fluminense have managed 20W 12D 6L from their last 38 home games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.34 PPG overall — Fluminense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
RB Bragantino's away record stands at 8W 13D 17L across their last 38 away games, a 0.97 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of RB Bragantino's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fluminense are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 1.22 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Current Season
RB Bragantino
Current Season
Fluminense (Home) vs RB Bragantino (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fluminense
Current Season
RB Bragantino
Current Season
❓ Fluminense vs RB Bragantino Form FAQs
What form are Fluminense and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 28W 18D 30L in their last 76 games (1.34 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 27W 25D 24L in their last 76 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or RB Bragantino away?
Fluminense's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 1.89 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Fluminense or RB Bragantino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, RB Bragantino in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 17 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fluminense have gone 4W 2D 0L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against RB Bragantino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Fluminense
2
Draws
2
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Fluminense vs RB Bragantino H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and RB Bragantino?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Fluminense have won 6, RB Bragantino have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and RB Bragantino last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 July 2026: Fluminense 1-1 RB Bragantino.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and RB Bragantino?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 47%, RB Bragantino 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Fluminense) and 40% (RB Bragantino).
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; RB Bragantino in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fluminense vs RB Bragantino Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fluminense and RB Bragantino matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Fluminense's recent matches and 53% of RB Bragantino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Fluminense and RB Bragantino matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Fluminense's recent games and 40% of RB Bragantino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fluminense and RB Bragantino matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Fluminense's recent matches and 74% of RB Bragantino's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fluminense edge out RB Bragantino 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat RB Bragantino 2-1 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.35 xG and RB Bragantino 0.85 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 0.94 / defence 0.96 against RB Bragantino attack 0.99 / defence 1.04, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 45% | Draw 34% | RB Bragantino 21%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 36%, RB Bragantino 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fluminense 1.34 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fluminense win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.